2018 ELECTION State of the Race: 25 Days Until Midterms

Welcome to Mediaite’s “State of the Race” – a compilation of the latest polling data and analysis regarding the upcoming 2018 Midterm Elections.

THE OUTLOOK: While Democrats continue to see strong odds of recapturing control of the House and gaining governorships, Republicans will likely hold on to the Senate, riding a wave of enthusiasm following the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Today is Friday, October 12, 2018 and here’s what the experts are saying:

Real Clear Politics currently places Democrats with a 6.9-point advantage over Republicans on the generic ballot. RCP forecasts a 1-seat gain for the GOP in the Senate.

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SENATE:

– FiveThirtyEight: Predicts Republicans have an 81.4% chance of keeping control of the Senate

– Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics): North Dakota moves from ‘Toss-up’ to ‘Leans Republican’; gives GOP “a clearer edge” of keeping control of the Senate.

Republican Senate candidates have seen a substantial increase in enthusiasm among likely voters since Kavanaugh’s confirmation. FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 Senate Forecast saw GOP chance to keep control of Congress’ upper chamber jump from 68.1% on September 30^th to a high of 81.7% on October 12^th.

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HOUSE:

– FiveThirtyEight: Predicts Democrats have a 78.6% chance to win control of the House

– Cook Political Report: Predicts Democrats will gain between 25-40 seats, but if election happened this week would forecast on lower end of that range.

The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman noted, “House Republicans have seen more bright spots in the past week of polling since the Kavanaugh confirmation fight than they saw in over a month.”

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GOVERNOR:

– Real Clear Politics: Predicts Democrats to pick up 8 governorships.

– Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Predicts gains for gubernatorial Democrats: ‘perhaps a lot of them’

Sabato’s Crystal Ball shows Alaska shifting from ‘Leans Republican’ to ‘Likely Republican’ and South Dakota moving from ‘Likely Republican’ to ‘Leans Republican’.