FiveThirtyEight Now Forecasts to 50/50 Odds That Republicans Will Win Back the Senate

FiveThirtyEight currently predicts that the Republican Party has a 50 percent chance of taking back the Senate while the Democratic Party has a 50 percent chance of keeping the upper congressional chamber.

As the Nate Silver-run outlet puts it: “It’s a dead heat for the Senate.”

How so? FiveThirtyEight explains:

• The Senate is currently a toss-up. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia. However, Herschel Walker’s scandals may hurt his chances against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, but that race has gotten a lot tighter recently.

• The Senate is currently a toss-up. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia. However, Herschel Walker’s scandals may hurt his chances against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania, but that race has gotten a lot tighter recently.

In Georgia, FiveThirtyEight says that Walker has a 53 percent chance of winning against Warnock, though the popular vote shows Warnock barely leading with 49.3 percent of the vote.

In Nevada, the site has Republican nominee Adam Laxalt with a 54 percent chance of beating incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto and leading her by 0.6 percentage points with 49 percent of the popular vote.

In Pennsylvania, a key state, FiveThirtyEight shows Democratic nominee John Fetterman with a 57 percent chance of winning but slightly leading GOP nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz, 49.5 percent to 48.4 percent.

In Arizona, another crucial state, the site has incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with a 68 percent chance of winning but leading GOP nominee Blake Masters, 50.3 percent to 47.7 percent. Libertarian candidate Marc Vitor withdrew from the race on Tuesday and endorsed Masters.