Gold Standard Iowa Pollster: Trump Building on Huge Lead, Smaller GOP Field Making Him ‘Even Stronger’
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom survey in Iowa conducted by famed Hawkeye State pollster J. Ann Selzer suggests that former President Donald Trump is building on his already substantial lead.
The new poll shows that Trump is now the first choice of more than half (51%) of likely Republican caucus participants with barely a month to go until the contest.
In October, a Register/NBC poll found that Trump had the support of just 43% of the same cohort. His 8% jump marks by far the biggest increase among the Republican field since the October survey, which included Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, both of whom have since dropped out.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis saw a 3% bump, with 19% of voters indicating that they now inten to caucus for him, while former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley stayed steady at 16%. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie trailed the top three with 5% and 4%, respectively.
New IOWA poll via ANN SELZER:
Trump 51% (+8 from October)
DeSantis 19% (+3 from October)
Haley 16% (flat since October)
Ramaswamy 5%
Christie 4%https://t.co/4ZDJDXtO9Z— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) December 11, 2023
“The field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger than he was,” Selzer told the Register. “I would call his lead commanding at this point. There’s not much benefit of fewer candidates for either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.”
Forty-six percent of voters say they are still open to supporting multiple candidates come the January 15 caucus, while 49% are firmly committed to supporting their current first choice.
Despite Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden four years ago and significant legal baggage, a supermajority of those surveyed (73%) believe Trump can beat Biden in a rematch.
A strong majority of DeSantis supporters (59%) still believe Trump can win, while an even larger majority (65%) of Haley supporter think Trump will not be able to prevail.
“This is one of the clear differentiating points between DeSantis and Haley,” observed Selzer, “the affinity for DeSantis supporters and Trump and the disaffinity between Haley supporters and Trump.”
