Latest RealClearPolitics No Toss-Ups Map Shows Trump Cracking Blue Wall, Eking Out Narrow Win

Saturday’s RealClearPolitics “no toss-up” map predicted a narrow Electoral College victory for former President Donald Trump to secure a second term in the White House.

The RCP polling average forecasts Trump winning five of the seven battleground states expected to decide the 2024 election.

In the scenario laid out by the map, Trump takes Pennsylvania to crack the so-called Great Lakes “blue wall” that was widely considered out of play for Republicans until the 2016 election.

The RCP no toss-up map also predicts Trump will carry Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Vice president Kamala Harris is shown carrying Michigan and Wisconsin.

RealClearPolitics

The map casts a close election in which Trump secures 287 electoral votes to Harris’s 251 electoral votes.

Trump won the 2016 election by sweeping Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2020, he lost all three of those states to then-candidate Joe Biden, who also took Arizona and Nevada.

While the RCP map shows Trump eking out a win, the race is widely considered a toss-up. On Friday afternoon, CNN data guru Harry Enten ended his week by etching the words “I DON’T KNOW WHO WILL WIN” on a yellow notepad.

The final NPR/Marist poll before the election was released Friday and showed Harris up in each of the three blue wall states.

Another poll released Saturday also offered hope to the Harris campaign in an unlikely place: Iowa.

A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll that dropped Saturday night found Harris was leading Trump by three points – 47 to 44 percent among likely voters. The Register noted:

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.

The poll also shows Trump’s campaign surrogate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – who is still on Hawkeye State ballots – taking three percent of the vote.

Another five percent of Iowans said they were unsure of who they intended to vote for or declined to answer.

Des Moines Register/Mediacom polled 808 likely voters from Oct. 28-31 and reported a margin of error at +/- 3.4 percentage points.