Nate Silver’s Latest Forecast Shows Harris Increasing Lead Over Trump With a ‘Plan A’ And ‘Plan B’ To Win

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

Data guru Nate Silver’s latest 2024 election forecast has Vice President Kamala Harris pulling out even further ahead of former President Donald Trump. Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” election model now gives Harris a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency to Trump’s 42 percent. In early September, the numbers were reversed with Trump peaking at over a 60 percent chance of winning.

Silver explains what changed in the polls to flip his forecast’s outcome. “Lotta polling and our model mostly likes it for Harris. Her national polling lead is up to 3 points, and decent polling for her in GA/NC, too,” wrote Silver on X as he shared his latest update, adding:

The one place where she’s had a string of bad polls is Arizona, but it has only a 5% chance of being the tipping-point state.

Forecast still in toss-up range, but we’re at a point where you’d probably rather have Harris’s hand to play.

One last factor: positive revisions to economic data boosted our economic index quite a bit, that helps Harris too.

Silver’s latest write-up of his forecast notes that Harris, unlike Trump, has two solid routes to winning the Electoral College. Harris can lose all the toss-up states while winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still become president.

Silver calls this “Plan A” – the long talked about “blue wall” that crumbled in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. Silver explains that Harris also has a “Plan B” if one of those states falls – despite her polling up in all three. Harris can win “North Carolin, Georgia, or both” in order to still get to 270 – especially as she’s in striking position in Nevada and ahead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Trump, on the other hand, must win all of the toss-up states and at least one of the three “blue wall’ states.

Read Silver’s full analysis here.