Trump’s Counter-Programming Makes Fox’s GOP Debate Audience One Tough Prediction to Make

Before every debate thus far, this space attempts to offer a prediction around the final audience number. Some came pretty close to the pin, others overshot the green.

So what will tonight’s GOP debate on Fox News register? Unlike the other ten debates held on each side of aisle thus far, that question has suddenly become as complex to answer as that MIT math problem only Matt Damon could solve in Good Will Hunting. Donald Trump, of course, is the variable in the equation that has turned the whole evening on its head in yet another chapter of political media never written before. On one side of the equation are the seemingly almost-forgotten candidates who will still participate (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Rand Paul) on Fox at 9:00 PM EST; On the other side there’s Trump, who will host a charity event for war veterans at Drake University starting in earnest at 8:00 PM EST.

From a media/ratings perspective, Fox obviously will still win the evening. But any thought of breaking its own record for the biggest debate audience in cable news history is unattainable. Why? Because not only will many Trump supporters bail on principle alone, but the casual viewer — the kind who would tune in not to hear respective candidates policy and positions but for the reality show confrontation of Trump vs. Megyn Kelly — will opt for other programming instead.

And then there’s the whole aspect around the sudden opportunity for CNN and MSNBC to offer compelling political counter-programming when none really existed before in the form of Trump’s impromptu event. Say what you will about the GOP frontrunner — and there’s lots to say — but if he’s is one thing, it’s being self-aware of the media power he currently yields (which is absolutely unprecedented). Instead of petulantly live-tweeting during the debate or simply going off the grid that evening, he’s invented competition for Fox’s biggest event of 2016 (outside of election night) literally out of thin air. And instead of making it appear it’s about him, he’s flipping the narrative and turn it into raising millions for mistreated/untreated wounded veterans instead… a hot-button topic regardless of ideology given the highly-publicized failures at the V.A.. Is Trump using these veterans as props considering how little he’s given to veterans group before he was ever a candidate? Yes. As you’ll see, some groups are already seeing through the ploy. But if enough money is raised and enough attention is taken away from Fox, in Trump’s mind — and to his supporters — it’s mission accomplished (without the banner).

CNN will carry the Trump event live. It is probable MSNBC will dip into Trump live as well (carrying a few minutes live in an out between commentary from Rachel Maddow starting at 9:00 PM EST). The result? Make sure those batteries are working properly in the remote, because flipping back and forth between those three networks will likely be what a majority of viewers will be doing tonight.

Now… how the scenario effects the overall numbers remains to be seen. But know this in terms of how we got here: In the end, Fox went too far with that petulant press release in an effort to taunt Trump into another public visceral reaction. Just an educated guess, but this all appears to have been an effort to hype an event even more than it already was (See: Off the charts). But Trump called Fox’s bluff, and frankly, it’s hard to blame him for bailing.

Yes, he’s been petulant in his own right in attacking Megyn Kelly for a perfectly legitimate question on her part during the first debate in August, as reading a candidate’s words back to him/her is Moderator 101 stuff. Kelly has stayed above the fray in not getting in the mud with Trump. The powers that be at Fox should have followed her example. News organizations simply should not be in the business of mocking presidential candidates. Period. Instead, the network is now faced with dealing with a fractured audience courtesy of Trump’s counter-programming and hosting a largely unfocused debate, which will undoubtedly star Trump despite him not being there (Guarantee: You’ll hear at least 30 references to Trump’s absence by other candidates tonight).

Final number: 18.5 million. Fox drew 24 million in August with half the hype and virtually half of the country on vacation. But with all the variables involved in an equation nearly impossible to solve, that 18.5 comes with little conviction.

Predictions are largely based on precedent.

But as we’ve seen throughout this campaign cycle, precedent has been completely thrown out the window.

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Follow Joe Concha on Twitter @JoeConchaTV

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.