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Why Did Hollywood Earn Less in 2011 Than 2010? Hint: The Movies

by Philip Bump | 6:10 pm, December 17th, 2011

» 16 comments

Slate’s Dave Weigel noted that 2011′s box office earnings are on pace to be $1 billion below 2010′s. True to (snarky) form, he tweeted:

Man, box office down roughly $1 billion from last year. bit.ly/fv9G81 Time for more shitty sequels, guys!

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) December 17, 2011

Which made me wonder: is there a correlation between the quality of this year’s movies and the reduced earnings?

Yes, there is.

Using data from BoxOfficeMojo.com, I looked at the weekly top-grossing movies and cross-referenced them with their scores from Rotten Tomatoes.

I found that the most popular movies in 2011 were, on average, 5.5 points worse than 2010′s (61.8 versus 56.2). But the median score – that is, the number above and below which half of the movies’ scores fell – was 9 points lower in 2011, 67 to 58. In other words, the bad movies were worse.

Here’s what that looks like as a trend line over the course of each year.

Rotten Tomato scores for top-grossing films, by week

The only period during which 2011 was doing better was in the late summer – and that’s almost entirely due to The Help. Without The Help‘s four-week run, the average score for the year would have been a point-and-a-half lower.

By Rotten Tomatoes’ own metric of “rottenness,” which a movie achieves with a score less than 60, rotten movies led the pack 24 weeks last year, compared with 25 this year. But bear in mind – we still have several weeks left.

It’s worth noting, though, that receipts in general were down. The top 12-grossing movies each week earned $13 million less on average in 2011 than in 2010 – accounting for half a billion dollars in drop-off alone.

One final note. There is a correlation between having a lower-quality movie leading the box office and more money in ticket sales. In other words, during weeks in which a rotten movie led in receipts, theaters on the whole took in $5 million more on average in 2010. In 2011, it was $8 million.

2011′s top movies were worse and movies on the whole took in less money. But the worse the top movie, the more theaters earned. In other words, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

Oh, and movie studios. We can also blame them.

http://twitter.com/bagelpoker Jeremy Wenger

You’re forgetting that 2009/2010 had Avatar with most of the gross in 2010.
Anonymous

Burn, Hollywood Burn!
Anonymous

good point.
Anonymous

We all know who Hollywood blames, though: us. That’s why they’re trying to force SOPA through Congress. Too bad most Americans are paying more attention to what their ads SAY the law is about, rather than paying attention to the actual content and ramification of the law. “Stop Online Piracy Act” sounds totally innocent, right? Just like the “Patriot Act,” it has to be good for us!
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_45S32GWGDRUJIL6E2U4HOZW4BM Bob

Probably because people get tired of endless remakes, sequels, rehashes and jacked-up ticket prices for gimmicky, unnecessary 3-D.
Anonymous

Dismal year for movies.
Where is this years Black Swan or King’s Speech or True Grit or The Fighter?
Best two movies were Drive and Warrior and hardly anyone has seen those.

The year is not over yet. Still holding out hope for Dragon Tattoo.
SNAPTIE-Touring All 57 States

Maybe the Hollywood Liberal elites will now realize when you constantly attack Conservatives, they will stay away.
Anonymous

Yes, that must be it. The movies are attacking conservatives too much! By golly, you’re a genius!
Just some Blow Hard…

Yeah that’s why Atlas Shrugged and the Palin movies were the top earners.

What? They weren’t?
Robert Shlumboski

Could this be the beginning of the end, for Hollyweird? I sure hope so. Almost six decades of watching films, and only a handful made a lasting impression. Can I get a refund? That’s the only way I’ll return (or is it report?) to the BOX OFFICE. A refund policy on bad films and bad popcorn.
Anonymous

Your wrong Bob there was a lot of good movies there wasn’t endless remakes or reshashes so your claims are lies baseless.
Anonymous

Your claims are baseless and lies movies are good and there isn’t a whole lot of attacks on conservatives not the movies I watch anyways.
Anonymous

It’s Hollywood not Hollyweird so your claims are lies and baesless Hollywood is here to stay so your wrong about everything. You don’t know what a good movie is and that is a fact. So your wrong and I’m right as always.
Anonymous

There has been pretty good movies this year Hangover Part 2 very funny entertaining movie, Bad Teacher also very funny and entertaining movie, The sitter is also very good movie, MI4 & Sherlock Holmes also look pretty good as well.
Anonymous

The only chance for the movie industry to bounce back is to release a sequel to “Atlas Shrugged”. Because of the heavy (and I do mean heavy) promotion from the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage, and Mark Levin, untold masses FLOCKED to their nearest cineplex, giving evidence of the influence these guy have.
Anonymous

Could be admission prices have finally hit a wall.