Nate Silver and 5 Other Analysts Unanimously Predict Dem House Takeover and Senate Gains

(AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Democrats are on track to come away from this year’s midterms with at least 218 seats in the House, per six experts who analyzed the upcoming election’s odds for The New York Times today. Perry Bacon, Carlos Odio, Patrick Ruffini, Nate Silver, Charlotte Swasey, and Lynn Vavreck also generally agree that the Dems will not gain total control of the Senate this fall, but will pick up some seats.

The Times asked each election analyst to choose points of data, races, and candidates that “capture the state of play in midterm contests across the country.”

All six agreed that the Democrats would gain control of the House if the midterms were held today. “Donald Trump’s dismal approval ratings would suggest a massive House defeat for the president’s party, similar to 2006, 2010 and 2018,” wrote Bacon, a staff writer for The New Republic.

Odio, the founder of Eqius Research, agreed, but warned: “All signs point to a Democratic House majority. But there is a drag on Democrats keeping them from a larger tsunami.” That drag may be political groups who supported Trump in the 2024 election, and who haven’t quite given up on him yet. “Today, I can see Democrats pulling off one miracle — but it’s too early to anticipate more. I still think Maine will move on from Susan Collins,” he added.

Swasey, author of the newsletter Medium Data, also cautioned against belief in a “blue wave,” even with Trump’s approval rating, which is below 40%. “My guess is the relationship between approval ratings and midterm results isn’t linear, making 2026 a strong Democratic year but not a re-enactment of 2018,” she explained.

The group also cited key swing states like Michigan (Ruffini) and Ohio (Bacon) as important to keep an eye on—and that’s true for Iowa as well, said Silver Bulletin author Nate Silver. Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate, is in a “tossup” with Representative Ashley Hinson. And while Dems have been burned by polls before, Silver noted that “sometimes being below the radar is helpful” and “The race won’t attract as much money as, say, Texas, and Turek might not be as easy for Republicans to typecast as James Talarico.”

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