CNN Data Chief Breaks Down Key Trend that Could Lead to Dems Taking Back the House in Midterms

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten explained Tuesday how current trends in voter turnout could lead to Democrats taking back the House this November.

During a Tuesday morning segment, Enten took a closer look at voter turnout data revealing registered Democrats were showing up to the polls in greater numbers for their primary elections.

“We’re about halfway through the primary season so far, and this is perhaps the best sign for Democrats,” Enten said, “because when people are going out there to vote, they’re voting Democratic to a historic degree.”

According to Enten, 57% of votes cast nationwide have been from Democrats. At the time of writing, 20 states had held their primary elections. It was the highest share of primary votes by Dems since 2018.

“This is a historically strong position for Democrats,” Enten continued. “The energy is on the Democratic side of the aisle.”

CNN anchor John Berman then asked Enten how parties have historically fared in the midterms after high voter turnout in the primaries. The trend, Enten explained, was clear:

Every single cycle since 2006 — Dems had the primary edge. They took back the House. [In] 2010, GOP had the primary edge. They took back the House. [In] 2014, GOP had the primary edge. They held on to the House. [In] 2018, Dems had the primary edge in terms of votes cast. They went back to take back the House. And in 2022, the GOP had the edge in primary votes cast, and they went back to take back the House.

When your side comes out and votes more in the primary, it forecasts very good fortunes come the fall in midterm elections.

Watch above via CNN

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