Nate Silver Forecast Shows Democrat Knocking Off Republican In Alaska Senate Race

Nate Silver released his latest data on the battle for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday and found Democrat Mary Peltola in the lead against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race.

“Today’s update. The big thing is that Peltola is now very slightly ahead in our Alaska polling average. Mix of polls here is a bit D-leaning; model had been heavily anchored on the NYT poll that had Sullivan leading, but it thinks there’s now enough evidence to outweigh that,” Silver wrote on social media, highlighting the latest analysis.

Silver’s data showed Peltola, a former House member from Alaska, with a 48.1 to 46.6% edge over Sullivan.

Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer also broke down the latest Fox “Power Rankings” for the U.S. Senate, which have Alaska as a “Toss Up.”

“I’ll swing on over here, show you what’s happening in that Senate race. Dan S. Sullivan is on the ballot, and so too is Dan J. Sullivan. And what a lot of people are starting to raise some eyebrows about in the Senate primary out there in Alaska: Mary Peltola is a Democrat running. Funky system — the top four advance today, and then you get ranked choice voting come November. So if the Senate is super close on election night, it may take a week before we know who wins Alaska. But hang on to that for now,” Hemmer explained, adding:

All right, this is our power rankings — we’re releasing them right now, and it’s the new Senate map that we have. Focus on the yellow here — the toss-up races have changed. Okay, I’ll show you over there in a moment, but two on this map now have been adjusted. Jason, will you swing on over here and show you the six toss-ups in the middle? We think Democrats are safe in 47, Republicans are safe in 47 as well, but the six in the middle are up for debate and up for a vote come November.

Now, this could change and that could change, but right now this is what has changed thus far today. I’ll advance it one time, and here’s why: Texas went from lean Republican to a toss-up — Karl Rove’s coming up in a moment, he’ll explain that. Michigan, based on the outcome of the vote last week with El-Sayed, went from lean Democrat to a toss-up as well.

So now, here in the middle, you’ve got Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. We believe a half dozen states will determine the majority for the U.S. Senate.

Trump posted on Truth Social earlier on Tuesday, urging Republicans to make sure to vote for the right Dan Sullivan, given that two of them will appear on Tuesday night’s primary ballot.

“ALASKA: Be careful, VOTE FOR THE REAL DAN SULLIVAN TODAY,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Through me, he’s brought HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BACK TO YOUR STATE. The Dumocrats know how good he is and have put up an imposter of the same name.”

Watch the clip above via Fox News.

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