Nate Silver Accuses FiveThirtyEight of Playing Politics With Election Model: ‘They’re Waiting Until’ Kamala Harris Does Better
Elections analyst Nate Silver slammed FiveThirtyEight, the website he founded back in 2008, for suspending their presidential forecast for what he suspects are politically-motivated reasons.
FiveThirtyEight has suspended its forecast, affixing a note at the top of the page where it could formerly be found noting that “As of July 21 at 2 p.m. Eastern, President Joe Biden has suspended his campaign for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination for president.”
“We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced,” it continued.
On Monday, one user on X, formerly Twitter, wondered aloud what the website was “waiting for,” given the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris has secured the needed delegates to be considered the Democratic nominee for president, prompting Silver to accuse his old stomping grounds of putting its thumb on the scale.
“My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model and they’re waiting until she’s doing at least as well or otherwise what to do about that,” he replied.
My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model and they’re waiting until she’s doing at least as well or otherwise what to do about that.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 5, 2024
Silver, who took his forecasting model with him when he left FiveThirtyEight last year, had been bearish on Democrats’ chances of holding on to the White House and bullish on former President Donald Trump’s chances of retaking it when Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee. When he unveiled his model in June, Silver gave Trump a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College over Biden.
FiveThirtyEight’s model, on the other hand, remained relatively optimistic about Biden’s chances even after his disastrous debate with Trump in June set in motion the chain of events that led to his withdrawal from the race.
