Notorious ‘Black Swan’ Investor Reveals His Outlook for the Economy — and It’s Grim: ‘This Is a Trap’

Hedge fund manager and investor Mark Spitznagel shared his outlook for the economy and he sees a major crash headed the market’s way as stocks face downward stumbles after President Donald Trump implemented sweeping tariffs.

Spitznagel, who manages the firm Universa Investments, told Market Watch on Monday that he expects an 80% crash when all is said and done. Spitznagel is well known for predicting market crashes in the past, including the 2008 financial crash. His strategy of “black swan” investing is one based on predicting and navigating coming market tailspins.

“I expect an 80% crash when this is over. I just don’t think this is it. This is a trap,” Spitznagel said.

The stock market has seen massive losses overall in response to Trump imposing tariffs on imports from a number of countries. The president insists his tariff strategy will lead to more beneficial trade deals and a manufacturing boom in the United States.

Spitznagel said he is investing as if the market has crashed even though he believes that the ultimate crash is still coming.

“This is another selloff to shake people out. This isn’t Armageddon. That time will come as the bubble bursts,” he said.

“Doom and gloomers,” he added, are wrong when they predict that the chaotic market is going to even out soon.

“We’ve had our clients riding this bull market for years,” he said. “All the doom and gloomers think it’s over and they have this figured out. Take it from a professional doomer, they don’t. And they definitely don’t have the right position for it.”