Revered Nevada Politics Expert Jon Ralston Makes Bombshell Prediction About Who Will Win State

AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Jon Ralston, the CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, predicted that Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris would win the state’s six electoral votes in a blog post on Monday in spite of Republicans’ unexpected lead in early voting.

After reminding readers of his past success in picking the winners of statewide and presidential races in the Silver State, Ralston noted that “the early vote is different” this year than in any year prior.

“Usually, the Democrats, fueled by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins,” he wrote. “But this cycle, with former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!), the GOP vote has been frontloaded. The inverse is true and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a 43,000-plus GOP ballot lead as I write this.”

Nevertheless, Ralston ultimately concluded that Harris would win a “coin flip” race between Harris and Trump because of undecided voters’ decision to coalesce around Harris and the Democrats’ superior political operation:

The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause.

Ralston’s final prediction is that Harris will defeat Trump by just .3%, 48.5%-48.2%.