Trump Within Striking Distance of Historic Win in Deep-Blue Minnesota, GOP May Flip Senate Seat: Emerson Poll
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President Donald Trump is within striking distance of winning deep-blue Minnesota in the 2020 election, according to a new survey by Emerson Polling.
The survey found 50 percent of likely Minnesota voters planned to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, compared to 47 percent who plan to vote for Trump. The numbers are similar to the outcome in 2016, when Hillary Clinton took 46.44 percent of the vote next to 44.92 percent for Trump.
They are also part of a trend that has seen the state become more Republican under Trump. Former President Barack Obama won the state by 52 percent in 2012 — nearly 8 points more than Republican Mitt Romney — and 54 percent in 2008, besting the late Sen. John McCain by a whopping 10 points.
Minnesota last voted for a Republican president in 1972, giving it the longest blue streak of any state in the nation. It was the only one to vote against President Ronald Reagan in 1984.
The state’s Senate race between Sen. Tina Smith (D) and former Rep. Jason Lewis (R) is similarly sitting on a knife’s edge. Emerson said Smith leads Lewis 48 to 45 percent, with 7 percent of voters still undecided. Minnesota last voted for a Republican senator in 2002, when voters sent Norm Coleman (R) to the Senate two weeks after his opponent — the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) — died in a plane crash.
The numbers in the Senate race represent a shift from the dynamic 2018, when Smith won election with 53 percent of the vote — 9 percent more than her Republican opponent — to finish former Sen. Al Franken’s (D) term in office. Franken resigned in disgrace after nearly a dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct.
Voters elected Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) to a third term in office the same year with 60 percent of the vote — 24 percent more than her Republican opponent.
Emerson’s survey was conducted between August 8-10, before Biden’s Tuesday announcement that Sen. Kamala Harris (CA) would serve as his presidential running mate. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
