Betting Odds Iran’s Leader Khamenei Is Ousted This Year ‘Just Skyrocketed’
Photo by SalamPix/Abaca/Sipa USA (Sipa via AP Images)
The tenure of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, is likely to come to an end this year, according to the majority of gamblers on Polymarket’s prediction market.
The security of Khamenei’s grasp on power became an increasingly newsworthy topic amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, and media reports speculating if or how the American military might get involved. President Donald Trump’s public comments and social media posts have further added to the chatter.
On Tuesday, Trump dropped several new posts on his Truth Social account about Iran — including making a not-so-veiled threat against Khamenei:
We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured “stuff.” Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.
“We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!
Polymarket’s social media accounts highlighted how pessimistic its bettors were that Khamenei would stay in power.
“BREAKING: Things are not looking good for the Supreme Leader of Iran, as Trump demands an ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” Polymarket wrote. “Traders project Khamenei will be removed from power this year. >60% chance.”
The graphic posted with Polymarket’s tweet showed the odds for Khamenei being out by the end of the year sharply jumping from about 22% to over 60% over the past few days, since Israel launched strikes against Iran.
Polymarket followed up with another tweet referencing Trump’s post calling Khamenei an “easy target” for the U.S.
“Odds Iran Supreme Leader out this year just skyrocketed,” the caption read. “Trump just posted this.”
The current odds on Polymarket’s site, at the time of publication, show a 61% chance that Khamenei will be “out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025,” which Polymarket defines as if he “is removed from power for any length of time between December 28, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.”
“Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market’s timeframe,” the site adds.
Screenshot via Polymarket.
In addition to the risks Khamenei faces from the heightened tensions in the Middle East, possible military action by Israel or the U.S., and an uprising by the Iranian people, the actuarial tables are also casting a shadow over his future. The 86-year-old has served as supreme leader since 1989, was severely injured in an assassination attempt in 1981, and has had several health scares, including prostate surgery and reported cancer treatments in 2014 and surgery for a bowel obstruction in 2022.
