Bernie is Now 50/50 to Win Nomination as Biden’s Chances Crater: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has roughly a 50/50 shot at winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — more than double the probability of his nearest competitor — according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

A forecast from FiveThirtyEight places Sanders’ odds at “1 in 2,” with former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds at “1 in 5,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at “1 in 20,” and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at “1 in 30.”

All other 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard, are placed at “1 in 100” odds.

Sanders is also currently predicted to receive around 1,782 pledged delegates, with Biden at 987, Buttigieg at 402, Warren at 394, and Bloomberg at 339.

“FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts,” explained the forecast. “We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.”