Fox News Poll Shows Democrat Has 9-Point Lead in Race to Replace Retiring GOP Senator in North Carolina

Sarah RumpfJul 30th, 2026, 7:15 am
 

A new Fox News poll showed former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) with a nine-point lead over his Republican opponent Michael Whatley in the battle to fill retiring Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-NC) seat.

Tillis, 65, has served in the Senate since 2014, and has been increasingly outspoken during President Donald Trump’s second term, especially after announcing he would not run for re-election; this includes raising objections and even threatening to block Trump’s attorney general nominee.

Cooper, 69, is an attorney with a long résumé in Tar Heel State politics, serving for years in the North Carolina legislature, as the state’s Attorney General, and then governor until 2025.

Whatley, 57, is also an attorney and was the chair of the North Carolina Republican Party and then spent a little more than a year chairing the Republican National Committee before stepping down to run for Tillis’ Senate seat.

Both Cooper and Whatley easily won their primaries. Cooper had no real opposition and got 92% of the vote; Whatley out-raised all his Republican opponents combined and scored Trump’s endorsement.

Trump’s endorsement might clear the path in a GOP primary, but it has less benefit in a general election, especially after the president’s polling numbers have declined over the course of his second term.

The last time Tillis ran for re-election in 2020, he won a narrow victory by almost two points.

The latest Fox News poll out Wednesday shows Republicans’ fortunes for that Senate seat have moved more than ten points in the other direction.

The survey was conducted by landline, cell phone, and online from July 23 to July 27 using a sample of 1,005 registered North Carolina voters chosen from a statewide voter file via random selection.

The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3 percentage points.

In the poll, 53% of respondents chose Cooper, 44% picked Whatley, and 2% said they did not know.

The key to the race, as Fox News anchor Bret Baier highlighted in his report Wednesday evening, is the “enthusiasm advantage” Democrats have in this election.

More North Carolina Democrats (51%) than Republicans (42%) say they are “extremely interested” in the midterm elections. Democrats (58%) also come out ahead over Republicans (50%) in how many say they are “extremely motivated” to vote.

The gap between Cooper and Whatley gets even bigger among these groups. Those who say they’re “extremely interested” in the election chose the Democrat 57% to 42% and those who said they were “extremely motivated” to vote favored Cooper as well, 55% to 42%.

Cooper also had better appeal to North Carolina voters who identified as moderate (68% to Whatley’s 29%) and independent (60% to 34%), and he flipped votes for 15% of those who said they were “very conservative” and 21% of non-MAGA Republicans.

Watch the clip above via Fox News.

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Sarah Rumpf - Contributing Editor

Sarah Rumpf joined Mediaite in 2020 and is a Contributing Editor focusing on politics, law, and the media. A native Floridian, Sarah attended the University of Florida, graduating with a double major in Political Science and German, and earned her Juris Doctor, cum laude, from the UF College of Law. Sarah's writing has been featured at National Review, The Daily Beast, Reason, Law&Crime, Independent Journal Review, Texas Monthly, The Capitolist, Breitbart Texas, Townhall, RedState, The Orlando Sentinel, and the Austin-American Statesman, and her political commentary has led to appearances on television, radio, and podcast programs across the globe. Follow Sarah on Threads, Twitter, and Bluesky.