Trump’s Iowa Lead Still Unsteady: Just 27% of Voters Are Committed to Voting for Him Per Gold Standard Poll

(AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

Former President Donald Trump still holds a significant lead in Iowa, where the first Republican primary contest will be held on January 15. But a closer look at a new Des Moines Register poll — long considered the gold standard in the Hawkeye State — reveals that his support is softer than expected.

Trump is out ahead of the pack with 43% per the Register survey, which was conducted in conjunction with NBC News, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and ex-U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (16% apiece), Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) (7%),  former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (5%) and Vivek Ramaswamy (4%) are all trailing him.

Out of that 43%, 63% say their mind is made up, while 37% are keeping their options open ahead of the caucus. As the American Enterprise Institute’s Jay Cost pointed out on X, that means that Trump has secured the vote of just 27% of Iowa voters, presenting an opportunity for another candidate to eat into that lead.

The Register poll suggests that DeSantis is best positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, as 41% of Trump voters say that despite Trump’s incessant attacks on him for the better part of a year, DeSantis remains their second choice. Haley (16%), who has seen a significant polling bump in the early states and nationally over the last few months, and Ramaswamy (15%) follow in that category.

The instability of Trump’s support betrays his oft-ignored weakness in Iowa, where he came in second place behind Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2016.

Notably, a CBS News/YouGov survey conducted in September reached a similar finding about Trump’s seemingly insurmountable lead, finding that 79% of Iowans and 77% of New Hampshire voters were considering other choices. That poll also found that more voters in both states had made up their minds that they would only support a candidate other than had committed to voting for Trump.