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Prediction: Democrats Will Hold or Gain in November

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» 27 comments

Remember, folks, you heard it here first. With the historic passage of health care reform last night, the Democrats’ fate in the midterms is in their own hands. If you take Republicans at their word, they stand ready to help the Democrats maintain or increase their Congressional majorities.

The key will be the degree to which the GOP campaigns on repealing the reform bill, and the degree to which Democrats embrace their achievement. Either way, the media has begun, and will continue, to shift the narrative in the aftermath of this fight.

One of the big reasons the reform effort stalled in the first place was the media’s affinity for small but vocal anti-health care spectacles like Sarah Palin‘s “Death Panels,” screaming town hall attendees, and POTUS-heckling Congressmen. That fascination will now come to the Democrats’ aid. When the ball is in play, all of these things can be spun as “fierce opposition.” Once the game is over, however, the team that stays on the field and keeps playing just looks crazy.

Just as the substance of health care reform was drowned out during much of the debate, so will the substantive problems with the bill be lost in the laudatory afterglow of its passage. Critics on the left will join the high-fiving bandwagon, with an eye toward building on the bill’s foundation. Just as Tea Parties and Scott Brown energized the base on the right, so will this victory reactivate the energy that carried Obama into office.

On the right, repeal will be a losing argument. The tire-kicking is over, and once the American people drive this bill off the lot, they ain’t bringing it back, except for a tune-up. Republicans would be much wiser to focus on individual fixes, but their incensed base will punish them if they don’t make good on repeal. That’s what happens when you call something an “apocalypse,” and people believe you.

The Democrats, however, never met an advantage they couldn’t squander, or a leader they couldn’t undercut. If they listen to the current conventional wisdom, they will shrink away from important fights on the economy, immigration, and energy policy, convinced that laying low will save their seats.

If, on the other hand, they use this momentum to show the American people that they can get things done, and they get even a little bit of economic good news between now and November, there’s no reason they can’t hold or gain. The choice is entirely theirs.

I asked Robert Gibbs this during today’s White House Press briefing, video of which follows:

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  • felixw

    Yep, the Democrats will gain seats in November. And everything will be broadcast on C-SPAN. And every family will save $2,500 from the health care bill. And 99% of Americans will have lower taxes after Obama. And jobs are being created (or saved) as we speak…..

  • marcus.lewis

    Don’t forget that Armageddon is coming, death panels will kill granny, we are now a socialist country and a communism is just around the corner.

  • same2u

    God knows they deserve to have their asses handed to them again.

    P.S.
    Glad to say I still am not tweeting or reading anyone’s tweets.

  • MichelleF

    Marcus,
    I’ll ask you this, since I’m not willing to waste my time with S2U, who only has foul language to contribute to the conversation. I know you libs hate the term Death Panel, but answer me this; with millions added to the HC rolls and 50% of doctors saying they will consider leaving the profession, AND BO claiming to lower costs, how do you think they will accomplish that? Could it be that more services will be denied? And if so, who is going to decide who gets what if the govt is in charge?

  • tigerprez

    Even bolder prediction: the Democrats will win EVERY seat in the House. That’s right, every last one of them. This country loves Obama. After passing Health Care, Obama’s approval rating has soared to right around 100% (according to the latest polls), with only racists and teabaggers keeping him from being at 101%. It’s over ReThugs! One party rule is coming, and you’ll be swinging from the gallows come November!!

  • hatehavingtodothis

    50% of doctors are saying they will consider leaving?

    What are you saying? That some doctors will leave? I am willing to place money on that being false. Can we put a dollar amount to it? I wanna know how much I’m set to make.

    By the way, I’m in medical school right now. I have some pretty fiscally conservative and politically moderate mentors here, and the thing they are most upset about is the lack of a single-payer system. There was very little opposition to the health care bill here; everyone recognized that reform was needed.

    The lower costs will come. Costs will be curbed. Wait for it.

  • hatehavingtodothis

    The thing that worry most is the self-fulfilling prophecy of Republicans trumpeting failure. They have gone all in on this bill failing. What are they going to do if it works as designed?

  • MichelleF

    By the way, I’m in medical school right now. I have some pretty fiscally conservative and politically moderate mentors here, and the thing they are most upset about is the lack of a single-payer system. There was very little opposition to the health care bill here; everyone recognized that reform was needed.

    I find that VERY hard to believe, Either they aren’t conservatives, or they aren’t advocating single-payer. I have two family members in the healthcare industry and I asked them what % of docs that they work for are for what BO is proposing and they said around 10%. But it is possible that you have one of those 10% as a professor.

    My question was, and I would love your opine:

    I know you libs hate the term Death Panel, but answer me this; with millions added to the HC rolls and 50% of doctors saying they will consider leaving the profession, AND BO claiming to lower costs, how do you think they will accomplish that? Could it be that more services will be denied? And if so, who is going to decide who gets what if the govt is in charge?

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Bill-Adkins/1585417987 Bill Adkins

    If Americans can forget how utterly disastrous were the years 2001-2009 in only 8 or so months after George W. Dumbass left office, they can get over the teabagging done by Dick Armey and the Republicans in their fake drive to bipartisanship between now and November.

  • hatehavingtodothis

    Another fun fact: I’m in a red, southern state. And it’s not just “a” professor, as you wrongly presumed, who feels like this a step in the right direction – it’s many doctors. A fairly vocal consensus down here, actually. The way insurance companies dictate health care right now is sickening (pun!). Not everyone thinks a single-payer option is the best solve, but the reform efforts put forth here will get some (hopefully) good programs going that can be built upon in the future. I think the thing you don’t realize is that many doctors / non anti-intellectuals just plainly don’t see this as a big step towards a Mao-ist state. It’s health care reform. Reform that needed to happen. Moderate reform that has been in the works for decades. We’re happy to see it pass.

    And re: death panels- oh, what, do we have totally limitless resources in the system we have (or can I say had yet?). Who decides now?

  • moby

    Oh yeah.!.. the DEMS will win big….HA HA…the CNN poll that reported that 69% OPPOSE Obamacare doesn’t mean anything…and that Scott Brown win in MA…just a fluke…that 10% advantage (largest ever) for republicans over dems in the Rasmussen Poll is a mistake…the wins by republicans in NJ doesn’t mean a thing….

    Keep drinking the kool-aid Chris.

  • timzank

    hatehavingtodothis says:
    March 22, 2010 at 6:59 pm

    Well first off, your opinion is going to be skewed and virtually invalid for two reasons. 1.You are still in school and even though it may be medical school, it still isn’t the real world, period.
    2. Your mentors are in Academia, a world unto itself. They are insulated idealists and most likely clueless in matters fiscal.

    You are probably of the age bracket that you don’t want to open a practice, if you truly believe the crap Obama is shoveling, you’re caught up in the ideology, the socialist goodness of it all. You’ll end up in a lackluster civil service physicians job tending to the scads of new poor folks in lines until you get really burned out and sick of being poor too, and that’s when the light will come on. Course it’ll be too late by then.

  • timzank

    Tommy, ya need to get out of the beltway once in a while, you are too insulated. I don’t think you understand the level of discomfort out here in the rest of the country. Seriously.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Kevin-Nelson/100000843821605 Kevin Nelson

    Which med school do you attend hatehaving? I do admire your willingnesss to make less money after the intense trials of med school/residency.

  • http://www.thecobraslair.com Cobra

    MichelleF writes:

    “I know you libs hate the term Death Panel, but answer me this; with millions added to the HC rolls and 50% of doctors saying they will consider leaving the profession, AND BO claiming to lower costs, how do you think they will accomplish that?”

    By LOGIC, you’re arguing that millions should be left OFF the HC rolls. And those millions added to the rolls are going to vote FOR people who are trying to kick them right back off?

    In what world do you think that’s going to work in? Truth be told, I WANT Republicans to follow Rush Limbaugh off the cliff and run on a “repeal the bill” campaign. You KNOW you need a 2/3rds majority in both the Senate and the House to override the Obama veto that would certainly come. This simplistic, hateful nonsense will get you absolutely nothing but irrelevancy.

    –Cobra

  • Moderate

    (Reuters) – Democratic stalwart Barbara Boxer risks losing her U.S. Senate seat in the November election, a California poll showed on Thursday, in a sign that voter backlash is spreading to a reliably liberal state.

  • MooseOfReason

    Gain what, pounds?

  • MichelleF

    No Cobra, I’m asking someone to explain to me how BO is going to be able to do what he’s promised, reduce the deficit and save each american $2500. Stop avoiding the actual question with accusations of hatefulness. That’s getting a little tired, and doesn’t really work on me anymore.

  • annejaa

    Well democrats think that after signing into the law it will change as Obama is already set to go out on the road talking up the healthcare reform with the public which is an early bid to reframe the debate around November’s midterm election.It also will prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage to children on the basis of pre-existing conditions and provide $5 billion to set up pools to help high-risk individuals buy coverage.
    Farmville Secrets

  • kit9

    ‘don’t forget that Armageddon is coming, death panels will kill granny, we are now a socialist country and a communism is just around the corner’

    And, don’t forget the evil doctors that are hell bent on chopping off perfectly good appendages, yanking healthy tonsils, and performing unnecessary operations. That’s not crazy Sarah Palin talking. That’s Obama. Yep, Obama using extreme-insane, and completely false-scare tactics. And MUCH MUCH crazier and about 100 miles further down the lie highway than anything Palin said about ‘death panels’, which was simply extreme hyperbole.

  • writer

    Congress has a 77% unfavorable rating. Hard to believe they’re all going to be re-elected.

  • hatehavingtodothis

    kit9 – what you described isn’t happening. over-testing and over-billing are. they really really are. it’s not always the doctors. often times, patients demand getting a battery of unnecessary, expensive tests because they know what’s best for them, not the guy who just spent the last couple decades in school trying to learn how to best take care of them.

    tim zank – you don’t know what you’re talking about. you’re wrong. you’re wrong because your argument assumes that you know what i believe and what i think. but you aren’t omniscient. sorry. calm your arrogance.

  • MichelleF

    hatehavingtodothis, Tim is right and you are wrong. Read something other than the daily kos sometime. The majority of people in this country do NOT want this. You saying otherwise, doesn’t make it so. The people will show their displeasure at being spat upon by this whitehouse in november.

    On as side note, someone who came from the communist soviet union, said she cannot believe the people can’t see what is happening, that we are turning into Russia. Well she’s party correct, but most of us DO see it, and those like hatehavingtodothis either don’t believe that or want it to happen.

  • hatehavingtodothis

    Michelle – I don’t read the Daily Kos. Again, you have falsely assumed something on my behalf. Please stop speaking for me. And don’t pretend like I don’t know what the polls say. Polls say a lot of things. What I do think is that the majority of people in this country are mad, but not in the uniform “repeal the bill” way that you think, and I believe the effects of this reform will be beneficial to most Americans. We’ll see what happens in November. You conservatives are historically short-sighted.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Massimiliano-Rossi/100000650588314 Massimiliano Rossi

    I’m not american i’m italian,i think only that 32million of people have now a medical cure. This is terrible? bye all

  • http://www.thecobraslair.com Cobra

    MichelleF writes:

    “No Cobra, I’m asking someone to explain to me how BO is going to be able to do what he’s promised, reduce the deficit and save each american $2500. Stop avoiding the actual question with accusations of hatefulness. That’s getting a little tired, and doesn’t really work on me anymore.”

    Alright. In what LANGUAGE do you need for you to understand the statement that HEALTH CARE REFORM REDUCES THE DEFICIT?

    Anyway, let’s look at the bullet points in the Bill and see where we can find savings? Hmmm?

    “The bill closes the Medicare Part D coverage gap, or “doughnut hole,” which is the difference between what the plan will pay for prescription drugs between initial coverage and the catastrophic coverage level. In 2010, Part D enrollees whose total drug costs fall between $2,830 and $6,440 have to pay the full amount for their prescription drugs. Under the bill, these enrollees would receive a $250 rebate in 2010 and a 50 percent discount on brand-name drugs starting in 2011. The gap would be closed by 2020.”

    So MichelleF, if Grandma’s name-brand prescriptions cost $6000 in 2010, they will only cost $3000 in 2011.
    That’s a savings of $3000. Hardly pulling the plug on Granny, huh?

    Let’s continue:

    “• After Jan. 1, 2011, co-payments for preventive services under Medicare would be eliminated, and preventive services under deductibles would be exempted.”

    Depending on how many times you see your doctor per year, Granny stands to save some more bucks there.

    More good stuff:

    “Let’s start with people who are unemployed, self-employed, or work for businesses that don’t offer insurance. Beginning in 2014 (that’s right, this is four years away), these people would be able to shop for coverage in new “health exchanges,” a sort of online bazaar in which insurers would hawk different kinds of plans. We’ll talk more about how these malls might work in our next story.

    Congressional budget experts figure that about 25 million people will shop for coverage in these exchanges. That’s a pretty big market. Of these, about 19 million are likely to be eligible for financial aid.

    The cutoff level would be an income of four times the federal poverty level. For one person, that’s about $44,000 a year. For a family of four, the comparable figure is about $88,000.

    Subsidies would be figured on a sliding scale, with those who make less getting a bigger boost and those nearer the top getting a smaller one.

    The formula is pretty complicated. Basically, though, people who make three or four times the poverty level would get enough federal money so that they would not have to pay more than about 10 percent of their income for a decent health insurance package.

    People who make less would have to pay a smaller slice of their income for coverage. For instance, individuals who make about $14,000, and four-person families with incomes of about $29,000, would not have to pay more than 3 to 4 percent of their incomes for insurance.

    And those who make even less – under 133 percent of the federal poverty level – would be able to enroll in a newly expanded Medicaid program.

    The federal subsidy would go straight to the insurer. It would look like a discount on the policy to the customer.”

    Michelle, that sure sounds like a savings to American consumers to me. But perhaps you like the CURRENT insurance system. Well, if you have insurance…fine. You can keep it. But if you LOSE your job, or if you get downsized, you’re not out of luck.

    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0320/Health-care-reform-bill-101-Who-gets-subsidized-insurance

    Yes Michelle, call you GOP candidates. PLEASE. BEG THEM to run on a “Repeal the Bill” platform. Let them tell MILLIONS of Seniors that they want to “re-open” the donut hole and TAKE AWAY their newly acquired medicine discounts. Let them tell MILLIONS of uninsured Americans that they want to TAKE AWAY their ONLY CHANCE to get health insurance for themselves and THEIR CHILDREN.

    You go, girl. Get after it! As a Liberal Democrat Obama Booster, I’m PLEADING with you to do it.

    Massimiliano Rossi,

    Conservatives here will apparently step over the bodies of the 45,000 Americans who die from lack of health insurance to defeat President Obama, who had the audacity to get 53% of the vote in 2008.

    —Cobra

  • Peebo

    Talk is cheap.

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