Karoline Leavitt Shares Poll Showing ‘Broad Support’ for Trump Iran Peace Deal — But It Also Shows 80% Think It’ll Probably Fall Apart

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt shared a poll showing “broad support” for President Donald Trump’s peace deal with Iran, but the survey itself tells a different story.

“Poll: Broad Support for Key Objectives in Trump’s Peace Deal with Iran,” Leavitt wrote on X on Tuesday, sharing a Breitbart post about the poll.

Trump formally signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran that states Iran “shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.” It would also see the Strait of Hormuz reopened and a ceasefire put in place. Critics on both sides of the political aisle, however, have red-flagged multiple parts of the deal, including the lifting of sanctions against Iran and the framework for a $300 billion reconstruction investment fund for the country.

According to the Economist/YouGov poll Leavitt referenced, 44% are unsure whether they support the MOU while 32% support it and 24% oppose it.

More support was given for certain aspects of the MOU. Nearly 70% of respondents, for instance, said they support the Strait of Hormuz being reopened with “toll-free commercial passage” for 60 days. Nearly 70% also support the deal including Iran not being able to procure a nuclear weapon.

On the lifting of oil sanctions, things become far more split again, with 41% saying they support, 27% saying they oppose, and a third saying they’re unsure whether they back it or not. People are also split on the $300 billion fund, which White House officials insist will not be funded by taxpayers, with 46% in opposition and 23% in support.

As CBS News’ Kathryn Watson and others pointed out, the details of the survey get far more complicated. While people support aspects of Trump’s deal. More than 80% of respondents believe it is somewhat likely or very likely that the peace negotiations will fall apart and the war will just restart again.

On the likelihood of the negotiations being successful, 31% said it is very likely the war restarts and the peace deal does not stand. Another 50% think that is somewhat likely. Just 19% believe it is somewhat unlikely or very unlikely that the peace deal holds and the war does not restart.

Among respondents who identify as MAGA, 45% believe it’s somewhat likely negotiations fall apart and the war restarts. Another 26% believe it’s very likely that happens.

The survey also showed that few people view the current situation as a win for the United States.

For the question of who “won” the war, 25% said the United States, while 22% said Iran. Over 40% believe neither can claim victory, and another 13% are unsure of the answer.

The poll was conducted from June 19-22 among more than 1,600 U.S. citizens, more than 1,500 of them being registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of approximately 3%.

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