Nevada Elections Guru Warns That Dems Might Be In ‘Big Trouble’ As GOP Builds Up Early Vote Lead

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Jon Ralston, the CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, warned that Democrats might be in “big trouble” on Wednesday morning as a result of the lead Republicans have built up over the first few days of early voting in the state.

According to turnout numbers crunched by Ralston, registered Republicans have cast almost 14,000 more votes than Democrats since the early voting window opened on October 19. Most of the Republican advantage is attributable to the GOP’s domination in rural counties, where they have built up a firewall of more than 16,500 votes. But Republicans also hold a turnout advantage of  2,204 votes in Washoe County — the second biggest in the state — despite the fact that Joe Biden narrowly won it over Donald Trump four years ago.

In Clark County, by far the most populous county in the state, Democrats have built up a lead of a little over 5,039 votes. Biden won Clark Country by more than 9% against Trump four years ago.

Altogether, Democrats have just a one-point advantage over Republicans in the two urban counties where they have to run up the numbers in order to win the state, while the GOP boasts a 37.5% lead in rural areas.

On X, Ralston commented that Democrats’ Clark County firewall was “Out” and Republicans’ rural firewall was “In.”

“Dems need more mail, lots of indies, or big trouble in NV,” he added. Under Ralston’s extrapolations based on the early vote data, Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris would lose Nevada and its electoral votes even if she “won indies by 6,” assuming that both she and Republican nominee Donald Trump “held their bases.”

Ralston is highly respected for his work on elections and knowledge of the Nevada political landscape. On Saturday, Nate Silver identified Ralston as the only person in the country to “add more signal than noise from analysis of early voting data.