Top Economist Admits Trump May Have ‘Outsmarted’ Everyone on Tariffs

(AP Photo)

One of Wall Street’s top critics of President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz has now admitted the president’s unpredictable trade policy may be more calculated than chaotic, asking out loud in a new blog: “Is Trump a genius?”

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management and a consistent skeptic of the tariffs since it was announced, posted a striking about-face in his latest market note, conceding: “Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”

Just months ago, Sløk warned that Trump’s escalating import duties, 10% on most goods and 30% on Chinese products, would be “certainly painful” and risked destabilizing U.S. markets. Now, with Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire on July 9, Sløk is pitching a very different view: The tariffs could be a masterstroke, forcing global partners to the table while generating billions for the Treasury.

In his new blog, he argued that Trump could keep the current tariffs, offer a 12-month runway for countries to lower non-tariff barriers, and stabilize the markets in the process. The result, he says, could be a “victory for the world” and the U.S. economy.

Sløk wrote: “Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs, and it would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.”

He added: “This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers.”