Trump Thrashes Biden 3-1 Among Obama Voters Who Switched to Trump in 2016: Zogby
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President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by a little more than 3-1 among the mostly white voters who previously voted for Biden and former President Barack Obama, according to a Zogby Analytics survey released Wednesday.
The polling outfit said Trump leads Biden by 65 percent to 21 percent among the group of roughly 6 million “swing voters,” which Zogby defines as those who voted for Obama in 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. “Nearly all of these voters were white,” Zogby noted, and predominantly hail from the Rust Belt and Midwestern states that handed Trump the election — including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Zogby said Biden led Trump overall, with support from 44 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who supported Trump. One of the former vice president’s strongest constituencies includes suburban women: 53 percent that group said they supported Biden, compared to 31 percent who said they supported Trump.
Notably, Zogby found the election was tight among independent voters who said they didn’t lean toward either party. Thirty percent of that group said they supported Trump compared to 28 percent for Biden.
“Trump is not down for the count yet,” pollster Jonathan Zogby said, noting that “turnout and a lack of enthusiasm” among Hillary Clinton’s 2016 voters contributed to Trump’s victory. He suggested Biden would benefit from exploiting “youth discontentment” and “anger in the streets of cities across the nation will,” while Trump should focus on “hoping swing voters stay in his column” while improving his performance in the suburbs.
Zogby’s final poll of the 2016 election — taken in October of that year — accurately predicted Clinton would beat Trump by 2 percentage points in the popular vote.
Zogby isn’t the only forecaster suggesting the election is in play. Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth — who accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 election — told Mediaite this month his model indicates Trump has a 91 percent chance of winning reelection.
