Trump’s Advantage in Nate Silver’s Model Expands: Harris Campaign Hasn’t Found ‘2nd Gear’
AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson
Former President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s advantage in Nate Silver’s electoral forecast model is expanding.
Last Thursday, Trump became the slight favorite in the presidential contest between himself and Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3. In the days since, Trump’s chances have only gotten better, according to Silver’s model.
While Trump’s chances stood at 52.4% compared to Harris’s 47.3% last week, an update to the model on Wednesday suggested that Trump’s odds have increased to 58.2%, while Harris’s have decreased to 41.6%.
#New winner model – Nate Silver
🔴 Trump 58% (Chance)
🔵 Harris 42% pic.twitter.com/B25GtMM9B6— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 4, 2024
On X, formerly Twitter, Silver observed that “Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately” and “the chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%.”
Today’s update.
There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately.
The chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college has risen to 18%.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/ufLHsoG62S
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 4, 2024
After last Thursday’s update, Silver attributed most of the shift in Trump’s favor to his advantage in Pennsylvania, where it had “been a while” since Harris had led in a poll. In addition to the Keystone State, Silver now says that “Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris.”
The elections analyst, who has expressed his preference that Harris win the election, also said he’d “buy the bull case for Harris a bit more if she hadn’t rehired so many of the Biden people.”
“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing [Pennsylvania Governor Josh] Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” he continued.
