Trump’s Chance of Winning Reelection Rises by 11 Points in a Month, According to Election Betting Marketplaces

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President Donald Trump’s odds of winning reelection reached 47 percent on Friday, according to online betting market averages, rising by 11 percentage points from a July 20 low, when he stood at just 36 percent.

Betting odds from six online markets suggest Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is a slender favorite. He currently holds a 52.8 percent chance of winning the November election, according to averages maintained by RealClearPolitics. Trump remains a slight underdog, but his odds of winning, as of Friday, increased by four points over the course of the Republican National Convention — rising from 43.4 percent on August 23, before the first day of the convention.

The markets suggest Biden did not get a similar bump from the Democratic National Convention. His odds of winning stood at 56.6 percent on August 16, just before Democrats held their convention, compared to 56.7 on August 20. His odds have declined from a high of 61 percent on August 1, when Trump stood at 36.4 percent. Biden held a +24.6 percentage point advantage on that day, compared to a +5.8 point advantage as of August 28.

Online marketplaces — including Betfair, Matchbook and Smarkets — allow users to place bets on who they believe will win the presidential election. Candidates’ odds fluctuate accordingly. The odds maintained by RealClearPolitics in 2016 gave Hillary Clinton an approximately 88 percent chance of winning compared to approximately 13 percent for Trump.