Zohran Mamdani Surges in NYC Mayor Betting Market After Shock Poll Shows Him Beating Cuomo

Sarah RumpfJun 23rd, 2025, 3:56 pm
 
Cuomo and Mamdani

AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, Pool

Online gamblers took a shine to New York City mayoral candidate and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani after a recent poll showed him surging just past former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary scheduled for Tuesday.

The poll in question was conducted by Emerson College with The Hill and PIX11 News from June 18 to 20 via “cell phones via MMS-to-web text and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (phone list provided by Aristotle), along with an online panel of voters provided by CINT.” The margin of error was +/-3.3% for the entire sample, and then +/-3.6% for the last round of ranked choice voting. More information about the methodology is available on the Emerson College website.

The poll showed that Cuomo led as the choice of 35% of the poll respondents, followed by Mamdani at 32%, then Comptroller Brad Lander at 13%, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams at 8%, Scott Stringer with 3%, and 4% of voters still undecided.

Not only was Mamdani’s support within the margin of error for Cuomo’s number, when the pollsters went through the ranked-choice voting simulation over eight rounds, the end result put Mamdani on top at 52% and Cuomo at 48% — slightly over the margin of error.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted how Mamdani had “surged” his support, but Cuomo was stagnant, polling “near where he began” through five months of polling.

Early voters showed a 10-point preference for Mamdani over Cuomo, 41% to 31%, the poll showed, and New Yorkers who planned to vote on Election Day or had not yet voted when polled preferred Cuomo to Mamdani by 5 points, 36% to 31%.

The poll also noted demographic trends after the last round of ranked-choice voting:

Voters under 50 break for Mamdani by a 2:1 margin, while Cuomo leads among those aged 50–59 (63% to 37%) and voters over 60 (56% to 44%).
Hispanic voters support Cuomo 60% to 40%, and Black voters favor Cuomo 62% to 38%. Mamdani leads among white voters (61% to 39%) and Asian voters (79% to 21%).
Cuomo leads Mamdani among voters without a four-year college degree, 61% to 39%, while Mamdani leads Cuomo among college-educated voters, 62% to 38%.
Men support Mamdani 56% to 44%, while women lean toward Cuomo 52% to 48%.

Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal reported on this latest Emerson College poll and then the subsequent pop for Mamdani on Polymarket, an online prediction market.

As Monday rolled on, Cuomo retook his spot at the top of Polymarket’s betting on the Democratic primary for the NYC mayor, lost it again to Mamdani, back and forth a few times. At the time of publication, Cuomo was still the market favorite, but Mamdani appeared to be narrowing the gap again.

Democratic primary for NYC Mayor - Polymarket

Screenshot via Polymarket.

See the most recent status for the market on this race at Polymarket.

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Sarah Rumpf - Contributing Editor

Sarah Rumpf joined Mediaite in 2020 and is a Contributing Editor focusing on politics, law, and the media. A native Floridian, Sarah attended the University of Florida, graduating with a double major in Political Science and German, and earned her Juris Doctor, cum laude, from the UF College of Law. Sarah's writing has been featured at National Review, The Daily Beast, Reason, Law&Crime, Independent Journal Review, Texas Monthly, The Capitolist, Breitbart Texas, Townhall, RedState, The Orlando Sentinel, and the Austin-American Statesman, and her political commentary has led to appearances on television, radio, and podcast programs across the globe. Follow Sarah on Threads, Twitter, and Bluesky.