CNN Data Chief Reveals Dems’ Chances of Taking the House in 2026 ‘Have Gone Plummeting Down’

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday explained how the Democratic Party’s chances of retaking the House of Representatives have sharply declined in recent months.

During a Wednesday morning segment, Enten took a closer look at the highly-anticipated midterm elections in 2026. In 2024, Republicans secured a sweep of the federal government by winning majorities in the House and Senate in addition to propelling Donald Trump back into the White House. Since then, Democrats have shifted their focus to 2026 with the hopes of taking back some congressional power to prevent Trump from continuing to enact his polarizing agenda.

As Enten noted, the prediction market Kalshi had the Democrats’ chances of retaking the House at a staggering 83% in April 2025. Since then, however, the GOP has taken a big out of that lead.

“We saw them in an 83% chance, but those odds have gone plummeting down,” Enten said. “Now, we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances — up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance. So what looked like a pretty clear, likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.”

Asked by anchor Kate Bolduan what factored into those odds, Enten explained that Democrats were no longer on pace with polling from 2017 — the year before Trump’s first midterm elections. Additionally, Republicans could potentially see massive gains through redistricting efforts.

Watch above via CNN.