CNN Data Guru Explains Why These Two Governor Races Could Predict the Fate of the House in 2026

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday explained how two specific gubernatorial races could predict the result of the 2026 midterm elections.

On Tuesday morning, Enten took a closer look at the polling coming out of New Jersey and Virginia. New Jersey’s governor race is between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill; and Virginia’s is between Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger. At the time of the segment, both Democrats led in the polls and in the prediction market.

Enten called the polls a “flashing red sign” for the Republican Party before breaking down a lesser-known trend involving the two states:

ENTEN: Why should people nationally care? Why am I saying it’s a flashing red siren for Republicans? If the same party has won in New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, dating back since 1989, guess who won the U.S. House the following years? Six out of seven times, the same party wins nationally and they win the U.S. House of Representatives if, in fact, they win in both Virginia and New Jersey. So what happens–

CNN ANCHOR KATE BOLDUAN: That’s a cool stat. That’s a really interesting look, Harry.

ENTEN: Exactly right because the bottom line is this: if you’re not a resident of Virginia and New Jersey, why should you care? It’s because nationally, these races do in fact have predictive power if in fact the same party wins in both of those states; and currently, Democrats are favored to win in both, and history suggests, therefore — six out of seven times — they are predicted to in fact win the U.S. House of Representatives the following year.

Watch above via CNN.