CNN Data Guru Reveals GOP May Keep the Senate Thanks to Dems’ ‘Historically Low’ Midterm Lead

CNN’s Harry Enten rained all over Democrats’ midterm parade on Monday morning while revealing why the GOP just might hold on to the Senate.

Anchor John Berman kicked off the segment in question by asking Enten if Democrats’ six-point lead in the generic congressional ballot is “a big enough lead” as November approaches.

“Well, I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president. Because, take a look here, and I’m taking a look at the average of all the polls, Dem generic congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with a Republican president. On average, their lead’s actually slightly less, it’s five points. That’s less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points, and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points,” replied Enten. “So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on -20 to -30, depending on what polls you look at. You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead. And they’re just only sort of, slightly ahead.”

Berman proceeded to point out that while it wouldn’t take much for Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives, “the Senate is a different matter.”

“Yeah, the Senate is a different matter. I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map,” agreed Enten. “Why do I say that? Because let’s just take a look, GOP would win the Senate with this map. Let’s say Republicans only hold onto the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points. That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49. Why? Because what you would see is that the Democrats would flip North Carolina, they would flip Maine, but Republicans would hold on to Ohio, they’d hold on to Texas, and they’d hold on to Alaska because Donald Trump won all those states by greater than 10 points. And I will note, John and I were talking, we have the NCAA tournament going on, this is sort of the chalk scenario going on, where the most obvious events actually do occur. Because take a look during the Trump era, look at this, flip the Senate seat, midterm and presidential years, states the other party won by 10-plus points in the presidential election, zero, zero, zero times did a party flip those states. So we’re talking about places like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, where Trump won by double digits.”

“Which is why the Democrats might need a bigger lead than they have now if the Senate is really in play. What else is going on now for the Democrats that maybe should cause them concern?”

“What might cause them concern? Why is that generic congressional ballot lead so low? Because just take a look at this, net favorability, party ahead at this point, midterm years with a GOP president. In 2018, Dems were up by 12. In 2006, on net favorability, which party you like more, Dems are ahead by 18. Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability at this by five points,” answered Enten. “So Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate given that math.”

Watch above via CNN.

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