Gallup Identifies What Led To Pro-GOP Skew In 2012

A review led by Gallup Organization’s editor in chief, Frank Newport, and the University of Michigan’s Michael Traugott have concluded an investigation into what led to that polling firm’s skewed analysis of the electorate in 2012, leading the firm to forecast a far more Republican electorate than actually turned out to vote. The investigation determined that 20 possible elements contributed to Gallup’s pro-GOP skew, but four of those, including the organization’s rigorous likely voter screen, contributed to the erroneous prediction.

The New York Times reports that the review of Gallup’s performance prior to the 2012 election identified a number of issues including “the way likely voters were defined, the telephone numbers that were called as well as their geographic distribution, and how people were asked about their race adversely affected Gallup’s presidential surveys.”

RELATED: Gallup, Rasmussen Forecast More Republican Voters In 2012 Than 2004

Gallup’s model in identify those most likely to vote — a series of seven questions — seemed to have failed in 2012, and the organization is re-evaluating its formula for ranking voters who will turn out.

Gallup notes that the way pollsters asked respondents about their race also contributed to their prediction that some groups would be overrepresented at the polls.

The Times notes that Gallup intends to implement reforms and test their new methods ahead of November’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey.

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