Stop Taking the ‘Doomsday Clock’ Seriously – It’s Meaningless

Jamie Christiani/Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

This week, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced how close the journal’s scientists believe the world is to a human-made catastrophe.

Yawn.

The “warning” comes in the form of the famous “Doomsday Clock,” which since 1947 has used a minute-hand relative to 12 o’clock – in this case, “midnight” – purportedly to show our proximity to doom at the moment.

I could not care less where they put the stupid clock, but in case you’re wondering, we’re now just 90 seconds from “midnight.” That is the closest the minute hand has ever been.

Dun! Dun! Dun!

Naturally, the media had a field day with this “development” just as it does every time the clock inches closer to midnight. Here are just some of the headlines taking all of this very seriously:

“The Doomsday Clock moves to 90 seconds to midnight, signaling more peril than ever” – NPR

“The Doomsday Clock reveals how close we are to total annihilation” – CNN

“Doomsday Clock signals highest ever peril level” – BBC

“Humanity is closer to self-destruction than ever before” – Quartz

The clock was created by scientists who had worked on the Manhattan Project, which of course yielded the atomic bombs the United States dropped on Japan. Originally, the clock was intended to reflect scientists’ concern about the threat of nuclear catastrophe, but in 2007 climate change was added to the calculus, if you can call it that.

After all, where the scientists place the minute-hand has nothing to do with an actual equation or data. It’s all just vibes felt by people at the Bulletin.

Consider the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The clock was a full seven minutes until midnight while the U.S. and the Soviet Union were engaged in the most dangerous standoff in the history of humankind. In 1963, the clock was moved to twelve minutes before midnight, even though relations between the two countries had hardly thawed and the Cold War was still nearly 30 years away from ending.

Remember, the clock is now a mere 90 seconds from midnight, which shows how arbitrary and unserious this enterprise is.

It’s one thing to raise awareness about the dangers of nuclear threats and climate change, but it’s another to pretend this clock reflects any objective measure of anything.

For all intents and purposes, the Doomsday Clock is Punxsutawney Phil for doomsayers, a modern-day Millerite movement.

We should never downplay the threats posed by nuclear weapons and climate change. But to rely on a clock whose “time” is set by mere mortals who gain attention by making dire prognostications is just plain silly.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.