CNN Data Guru Finds ‘Hidden’ Dem Advantage in Polls: ‘Republicans Should Be Running Scared’

CNN data guru Harry Enten offered a stark warning for the GOP on Thursday while breaking down the latest polling going into the 2026 midterms elections.

Anchor Sara Sidner began by noting the Democrats seem to have “an advantage going into the midterms.” She then asked Enten to break down the numbers: “What does this look like? What are these polling numbers telling us?”

Enten replied, “You know, this is a poll that came out yesterday, a Marquette University Law School poll, and I don’t think it picked up enough coverage that it should have, because these numbers should be truly frightening to Republicans. Why do I point it out? Why do I say that? Okay, Dems versus Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. If you look at all voters, this matches the average. You see Democrats up by five points.” He added:

Okay, that’s not a bad position, but it’s not as strong as they were in the 2018 cycle at this point. But come over to this side of the screen. This is where it gets truly frightening for the GOP, because among those certain to vote, look at this—the Democratic advantage nearly doubles.

We’re talking about a nine-point advantage, going from five to nine points, and this matches with what we’re seeing in other polls, which is huge Democratic enthusiasm. Huge. And more than that, remember elections are not just about persuasion. They’re about turnout as well. And what this suggests is Democrats are far more likely to turn out at this point. A nine-point advantage, going from five to nine. That is A-plus. Two thumbs up. Great news for Democrats.

Sidner followed up, “I do want to ask, historically, is it unusual at this point in early polling for Democrats to be this enthusiastic?”

Enten replied, “Yeah, this is why I think this number was surprising to me. The reason it was surprising to me was I went back through the history books. I went, okay, party more certain to vote by party identification, early cycle midterm polls. Look at this: in 2006, Republicans said they were more likely to turn out. 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and then all of a sudden in the 2026 cycle, look at this. Democrats are the ones who say they’re more likely to turn out and vote. So this does not match what we see historically.”

“The idea that Democrats are more certain to vote is a new phenomenon and matches with what we have generally seen—the Democratic coalition sort of evolving, becoming more highly educated. This matches with that because more highly educated people are more likely to turn out and vote. And again, this is historically unusual and suggests that there’s a hidden Democratic advantage in the polls right now. You look at those polls, you look at that average of the generic ballot, you see Democrats up by five. That, in my opinion, based upon the Marquette University Law School poll and what we know about this Democratic coalition, may in fact be underestimating the Democratic strength going into next year’s midterm elections,” he concluded.

Sidner added, “This is quite stark what you are showing here. I do the historical look back. Is there any other reason to think that registered voter polling that we’re seeing right now might be underestimating Democrats?”

“Yeah, this is not the only reason why I think that the registered voter polling might be underestimating Democrats, because we just had a test. We just had a test a few weeks ago in Virginia and New Jersey. These were likely voter polls as well,” Enten replied, adding:

Polls underestimated the Democrats. In New Jersey, they underestimated Democrat Mikie Sherrill by eight. In Virginia, they underestimated the Democrat Abigail Spanberger by five. And that, in fact, was the biggest missed average in Virginia, New Jersey in an off-year election this century. So you combine that with the generic ballot poll that we saw from Marquette University, Republicans should be running scared. Democrats should be ecstatic because if this polling holds, it will be a huge November 2026 for Democrats.

Watch the clip above via CNN.

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