The Economist’s Election Forecast Shows Trump With 2 in 3 Chance of Winning the Electoral College

Former President Donald Trump currently holds a “small but clear lead” over President Joe Biden in The Economist’s 2024 election forecasting model.

The Economist model forecasts the odds each candidate has to win the electoral college in November and right now Trump stands at a 2 in 3 chance, while Biden holds a 1 in 3 chance, according to the model.

The Economist explains how it comes with its forecast, nothing, “Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the probable electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election. The chance of a tie in the electoral college is less than 1 in 100.”

The @TheEconomist election model now say Trump has a 2 in 3 chance of winning the electoral college pic.twitter.com/yW6YQwmWzr

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) June 18, 2024

Within the spread for the Electoral College, Trump is currently averaging a 300 vote win, while Biden is averaging only 238 out of the 270 votes needed to win – hence the odds skewing toward Trump. The Economist shows the national vote is nearly tied with Trump at 44 percent and Biden at 43.8 percent.

The model also has Trump with higher odds to win in all of the key swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Trump and Biden are running closest in Michigan and Wisconsin – where Trump has 3 in 5 chances of winning compared to Biden’s 2 in 5. But, Georgia is a blowout for Trump with 3 in 4 odds of carrying the state Biden narrowly won in 2020.

Click here for the full forecast.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!