Latest Cook Political Report Says Republicans Need to Win 76% of Toss-Up House Seats to Keep Majority

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images

Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) ability to hang on to his gavel past next January is increasingly in jeopardy, according to the latest analysis by the Cook Political Report that paints a dire picture for House Republicans’ chances of hanging onto the majority.

All 435 House seats are on the ballot in their respective districts this November. CPR’s updated House ratings list 189 seats as Solid Democrat, 10 Likely Democrat, 14 Lean Democrat, 17 Toss Up, 3 Lean Republican, 17 Likely Republican, and 185 Solid Republican — an overall 213 that are Lean/Likely/Solid Democrat, 205 Lean/Likely/Solid Republican, plus the 17 Toss Up seats.

These latest ratings incorporate five races that shifted towards the Democrats and one that shifted in the GOP’s favor.

These trends meant that Democrats were the “substantial favorites for control” of the House, wrote CPR’s senior editor Dave Wasserman, because “Republicans would need to win 76% of the Toss Ups to keep their majority.”

“The political environment for House Republicans continues to look bleak,” wrote CPR’s House editor Erin Covey. “Even before President Donald Trump’s approval rating reached a nadir amid spiking gas prices and an unpopular war with Iran, special and off-year elections showed Democrats with a significant enthusiasm advantage and Republicans were trailing the national generic ballot by five to six points.”

Among the races that shifted left were two with significant populations of Hispanics, Covey reported: Rep. Nellie Pou (D-NJ) is more likely to hold her seat as it moves from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, and Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) has a tougher road with her seat shifting from Solid Republican to Likely Republican — a move Covey attributed to Florida Democrats having “secured a particularly strong candidate.”

CPR’s ratings are sunnier for Republicans in the Senate, with 34 Democratic-held seats and 31 Republicans not up for re-election this cycle, and the contested ones breaking down to favor the GOP: 9 Solid Democrat, 1 Likely Democrat, 1 Lean Democrat, 4 Toss Up, 2 Lean Republican, 2 Likely Republican, and 16 Solid Republican.

Read the latest House analysis at the Cook Political Report.

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