More Than Half of Republican House Members in Next Congress Will Be Election Deniers, Predicts FiveThirtyEight

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Nate Silver’s election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight recently published an in-depth breakdown of the candidates running in the 2022 midterms who deny the result of the 2020 presidential election or who have called into question the legitimacy of the vote.

The impressive project “drew on news reports, debate footage, campaign materials and social media and reached out to every single Republican nominee for the House, Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general to determine their position on the 2020 election.”

The outcome of all that reporting was a detailed look at exactly who is poised to enter the next Congress.

The report found that over “60 percent of Americans will have an election denier on the ballot this fall” and that more than half of House GOP members predicted to win seats in November have denied the election.

Denying the 2020 presidential election and parroting debunked accusations of widespread voter fraud became a key task for candidates seeking the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who boosted many GOP candidates to primary victories this cycle.

While the legitimacy of the 2020 election may not be front and center for every voter in the country as inflation, crime, abortion rights, and securing the U.S.-Mexico border remain top issues, the impact of election denial on future elections is undeniable.

During the primaries this summer, multiple hard-right candidates refused to concede their elections and claimed voter fraud. From Laura Loomer in Florida to Tina Peters in Colorado, many election deniers have made clear that baseless claims of fraud will become a feature of American democracy when they lose elections.

While Republicans are still tipped to retake the House, the majority of Republicans running have already called into question the legitimacy of the electoral system.

“In the House, many of these election deniers look poised to win. Using the latest data from FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast, we can see that 118 election deniers and eight election doubters have at least a 95 percent chance of winning. Several additional candidates who have denied the election are in competitive races,” notes FiveThirtyEight.

The site’s forecast for the House shows the GOP with a 74 in 100 chance of retaking the House, with the majority of the outcomes landing somewhere between a majority of 240 to 218 seats.

In U.S. Senate races, FiveThirtyEight notes “only three election deniers are safe bets to join the seven senators not up for reelection who objected to the certification of the 2020 election. However, a handful more still have a real shot at winning.”

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