Nate Silver Calls Timeout on Election Forecast as 538 Model Moves Drastically, Putting House Odds Near 50/50

FiveThirtyEight’s realtime tracker has just made a drastic revision to the predictions for tonight’s midterm elections, showing the House currently up for grabs.

Previously Republicans chances were not good, with this morning’s final forecast at 87.5% Dem 12.5% chance GOP. Now the odds are more even.

The chances are swinging wildly, and changing by the minute, but it’s a big shift. And the changes are confounding people.

lol what the heck is going on with the 538 house forecast

— Matthew Zeitlin (@MattZeitlin) November 7, 2018

So much so, and shifting so often, Nate Silver had to post about slowing things down.

Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once — we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 7, 2018

[Featured image via screengrab]

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