Nate Silver Declares Control of the Senate a Toss-Up, Says Evidence of GOP Surge ‘Now Pretty Convincing’

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Nate Silver’s election forecasting model at FiveThirtyEight shows Democrats now have a 58 percent chance of retaining their majority in the U.S. Senate – down from 71 percent last month. Silver explained on Friday that while this may seem like a sizable lead, in fact, the race for control of the Senate is a “toss-up.”

The swing in favor of the Republicans tracks with the larger polling trends in the media and on other polling aggregators and election forecasting sites like RealClearPolitics, which predict GOP of both chambers in the next Congress.

Silver wrote about the swing in an article published Friday and noted on Twitter, “Was a bit skeptical of the GOP poll surge before, but I think the evidence for it is now pretty convincing, and if anything I’m more bearish on Democratic chances than our model is.”

Silver’s article, titled, “Why I’m Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up,” details why a 58 percent chance of winning is by no means a lock for the Democrats.

The data guru writes that exactly how to characterize a 60 percent chance of winning in political terms is a “tricky one.” “Poker players use the term “flip” (short for “coin flip”) when two hands have about an equal chance of winning, even if the chances aren’t exactly equal. Most players would describe this poker hand as a “flip,” for instance, even though the pair of 10s would win 57 percent of the time,” Silver writes, adding:

In politics, the similar term “toss-up” is often applied, although the definition is fuzzy. We’re even inconsistent in how we use it ourselves.

But let’s get real. If a friend asked me to characterize the Senate race, I’d say “it’s pretty fucking close,” and emphasize that neither party has much of an advantage.

Silver goes on to break down the state of play in the various swing states. He notes that Republicans “don’t have any sure-fire pickups” to gain an edge in the 50-50 Senate.

“Nevada is the most likely, and even there, GOP chances are only 53 percent, according to our forecast,” Silver explains, noting that meanwhile, Democrats can still count Pennsylvania as a likely pick-up:

Meanwhile, Democrat John Fetterman is still ahead in polls of Pennsylvania, although his margin over Republican Mehmet Oz has narrowed. The model is likely to be quite sensitive to new polling in Pennsylvania going forward.

If Democrats gain a seat there, meaning that the GOP would need to flip two Democratic-held seats to take the chamber, that starts to become a tall order. Nevada, sure, but I’m not sure Republicans would want to count on Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona.