NEW POLL: Republicans Back In Control Of California Governor Race After Swalwell Drops

(Paul Bersebach/The Orange County Register via AP)

California’s gubernatorial race landed back in the control of the Republican Party this week, according to a new Emerson poll showing the two GOP candidates atop the jungle primary field and potentially advancing to the general election.

Former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the two Republicans in the race, led the crowded field of Democrats with 17% and 14% of the vote – respectively. Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer also scored 14% of the vote in the poll, as both Steyer and Hilton gained 4% since the March poll.

With 23% of the vote still undecided and the poll carrying a margin of error of 3%, the race still remains up for grabs.

The latest Emerson poll is a stark contrast from Tuesday’s SurveyUSA poll, which showed Steyer leading with 21% of the vote and Hilton in second with 18%. The SurveyUSA poll still included disgraced ex-Rep Eric Swalwell (D-CA), who resigned from Congress this week amid sexual misconduct and rape allegations.

Hilton and Bianco had held a steady lead in the polls until President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton in a surprise move earlier in the month, which boosted Hilton by a few points at the expense of Bianco. Following Trump’s endorsement, Steyer, who has been blanketing the airwaves with ads, jumped above Bianco, leading many observers to argue the race was his to lose if he and Hilton advance to the general.

However, Swalwell’s departure from the race appears to have benefited the Republicans by elevating another Democratic candidate into contention. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained, “In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for Governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot.”

Becerra, who served as President Joe Biden’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, went from 3% to 10% (with all voters) in Emerson’s polls from March to April.

Screenshot via ECP

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