Republicans Lead Democrats By Largest Margin in FORTY Years of WaPo/ABC News Midterm Poll

Jeff J Mitchell, Getty Images

In a new poll from the Washington Post and ABC News, Republicans are leading Democrats on a generic 2022 ballot by the widest margin in the forty-year history of these polls, and President Joe Biden didn’t fare too well on his own, either.

The question was a simple one, asking whether the respondent would vote for a Democrat or a Republican in their congressional district if the election were held today. On that, 41% said they would pick the Democrat, while 51% said they would vote for the Republican.

That ten-point margin is huge, and well outside the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.5 percent. It’s the largest margin for Republicans over Democrats that this poll has ever recorded.

About 4% said neither and 1% picked “other,” by the way, which is nice.

The huge, unprecedented (by Republicans) margin prompted some explanation on the part of ABC News and WaPo in their respective analysis articles.

From ABC News:

While a year is a lifetime in politics, the Democratic Party’s difficulties are deep; they include soaring economic discontent, a president who’s fallen 12 percentage points underwater in job approval, and a broad sense that the party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans — 62% say so.

From the Washington Post:

Overall, the survey offers a set of harsh judgments about the president’s performance and the state of the economy. Together, they send a stark warning to Democrats about their prospects in the 2022 midterm contests.

Naturally, both outlets included a lof throat-clearing about how Republicans are bad, too, and how much time there is between now and the election. But the numbers, which are reflected in polls across the country, and questions asked in a variety of ways about the Biden administration’s performance, show what they show.

Americans are dissatisfied with the economy, worried about what their kids are being taught in public schools, concerned or unhappy about the job market, and Covid and Afghanistan and so many other things.

In noting that it’s the “biggest lead for Republicans in the 110 ABC/Post polls that have asked this question since November 1981,” ABC News points out that this is just the second time the GOP has held “a statistically significant advantage” and only the ninth time Republicans have “held any numerical edge at all.”

In the realm of “bad signs,” that one is flashing in neon brighter than the sun. Biden’s approval overall is on a steady decline, coming in at just 41%, and on the economy at a dismal 39%. Even on Covid, arguably his best issue, he’s only at 47%, still not breaking the majority mark.

Inflation was a hot topic on the Sunday morning shows this week, and although the administration has made repeated efforts to distance their policies from responsibility for rising prices (including with help from some in the media), polling seems to indicate that angle is not hitting with the American public. In this poll, 34% of respondents said they blame the president “a great deal” for rising prices, 14% said they blame him “a good amount,” and 29% said “not much.”

That means that on the worst inflation in 31 years in this country, 77% assign at least some of the responsibility on Joe Biden. Taking only “good deal” or “great deal” puts it at 48% assigning blame to Biden.

On the issue of parents and the education system, it was more bad news for Democrats with 81% of voters saying parents should have “a lot” or “some” say in what their children are taught in public schools. Those numbers support a general consensus in politics that education issues were a major factor in support for Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia.

ABC News characterized the poll results as “underscoring profound challenges for Democrats hoping to retain their slim majorities in Congress” in 2022.

“Profound challenges” is a good descriptor. Pundits and spokespeople will be on social media damage control over this result, to say it doesn’t mean what it means or doesn’t bode unwell, but there are only so many ways to spin what has been consistently bad polling from almost every outlet on how things are going since Biden took office.

A year is a long time in politics — that’s true — but doing nothing and waiting for time to pass is also a long shot in politics. American voters, if one goes by the polls, want something to change. And that will either be in policy or process, now or in majorities next year.