Spectacular Campaign Ad Goes Viral Among Journos, Celebs, Top Dems? We’ve Seen This Movie Before.

Democrats, celebrities, NeverTrump Republicans … blue checks by the score are going ga-ga for a new political ad featuring a scientist and ordained minister who is running for office.

A candidate who is facing a bane of those blue checks: Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Chris Jones is running for Governor of Arkansas, and his new political ad is one of the most effective you’ll ever see. It’s smart, well-paced, and has “Netflix money” production values. Reminiscent of other high-profile candidates you can think of.

It’s a stirring and fascinating ad, one that tells a story and is giving out “goosebumps” on social media. It pushes the right buttons, motivates and inspires, and makes you like the candidate and want to root for him. Admire him. It is, in short, utterly impressive. It sure spoke to me.

And yet, if past is prelude, predicate, or predictor, it is also probably utterly futile.

The ad is not completely perfect. There’s a slight sour note when it incorporates scenes from the January 6th riot and Capitol breach. Democrats — who would vote for Jones if his ad were just a static banner of his name in mustard yellow Comic Sans — will absolutely love that bit, and be outraged at anyone who doesn’t. But it’s too immediate and specific for an ad that otherwise calls to higher purposes and broader, timeless imagery. And Arkansas Republicans – even ones who oppose Trump or blame him for that anti-American assault – will be turned off by it being confrontational. Especially in an ad that is an outreach to them in all other respects.

But that’s essentially a minor critical point from someone who watches thousands of these ads; A compositional note. Overall, the stunning ad is the kind of political debut that a party’s stars are made of. Even Luke Skywalker/The Joker himself Mark Hamill thinks so. Along with a slew of others, with a high density of journalists, authors, and celebrities.

The reaction tells us something other than that he has impressed elite Democrats and Democrat-curious Republicans. It signals that he could get the full Wendy Davis/Stacy Abrams/Beto O’Rourke treatment. Big money, big events, big tweets, big… flop?

Even fans of the ad recognize the size of the mountain to climb. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is MAGA royalty. She’s endorsed by and will be blessed a thousand times over by Donald Trump, still effectively the leader in the GOP (though his armor is showing chinks). Her father, Mike Huckabee, was the 44th governor of the state, too. Obviously. If you can remember back as far as 2007 (an iffy prospect in political terms, so just checking). The odds are very on her side in the conservative, Republican, Trump-supporter stronghold.

It’s true, Sanders will have to get through the Republican primary, which top Arkansan journalist and pollster Roby Brock has noted is famously cutthroat and historically the “scorched earth” style of politics. But a poll published on his site just over a week ago shows Sanders is topping other declared Republican primary candidates in favorability with voters in the state. Among Republican voters, she dominates top rival and current AR Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, coming in at (82%-6%) over Rutledge’s (48%-20%).

The Sanders campaign promises to be a hugely funded juggernaut. With her high local favorability, her connection to the state and experience in its politics, and of course the nature of the Arkansas electorate, her defeat will be hard to engineer, to say the least.

Jones will definitely make a splash. He already has, and the celebrities are lining up to get on board. His opening salvo was expert and impressive. His personal story, his background, his achievements all impressive, his delivery and argument both persuasive.

But while the right amount of energy may be able to bend time, that’s not necessarily the case with voters. In fact, the big attention could work against, despite the big money that will follow. Wendy Davis had effective ads and big Hollywood supporters, and she lost in a total blow-out to Greg Abbott in 2014. She had even more effective ads and even more endorsements in 2020, yet went down in flames again to Chip Roy. Celebrity politics can cut the wrong way in some states, and, as it turns out, voters seem to have some interest in the policies a candidate gets behind.

It seems his ad’s opening theme could prove prophetic because, in a way, this comes down to faith vs science. Faith says a stunning debut for an impressive candidate unsullied by prior campaigns can perform miracles. But science? Science says outsiders overselling can backfire. It says the race has only just begun and he still has a primary to get through, an Arkansas primary. And unfortunately, science says Sanders is just inches from this being a coronation rather than a competition.

In Arkansas, a well-funded and nationally popular Democrat could turn out to look a lot like Wendy Davis. Or Beto O’Rourke. Or Andrew Gillum. Or Stacey Abrams, or Jaime Harrison, or Mayor Pete, or… well you get the idea. I mean, we’ll see. It’s really early. Anything could happen, even a miracle. But it won’t be anywhere close to an easy fight.

Still, it’s a great ad.

 
This post has been updated for grammar