Texas’s Senior Senator Is Trailing His MAGA Primary Opponent by Double Digits: Poll

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by 16 points in the 2026 Republican Senate primary, according to an internal poll viewed and reported by Punchbowl News on Monday.

The poll from the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) found Paxton leading with 50% support to Cornyn’s 34%, with 17% undecided.

Paxton, a staunch ally of President Donald Trump, officially announced his candidacy last month. He is positioning himself as a more pro-MAGA alternative to Cornyn, who hardline Texas conservatives have painted as a moderate. Cornyn, Texas’s senior senator, has held his seat since 2002 and served in Senate leadership. He was a leading contender to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as GOP leader, but eventually lost the race to Sen. John Thune (R-SD).

Cornyn faced backlash over his work in crafting the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, a gun safety law passed in 2022 after a massacre at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas.

The legislation included enhanced background checks for gun buyers under 21 and was the first major federal gun control measure in decades.

At the time, hardline pro-gun Republicans vowed to primary Cornyn, who now has two challengers, including Paxton.

Punchbowl News reported in a hypothetical three-way GOP primary, Paxton leads with 44%, followed by Sen. John Cornyn at 34% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 19%, according to an internal Tarrance Group poll conducted April 27 to May 1.

In general election matchups against potential Democratic challenger Colin Allred, Cornyn leads by six points.

Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in May 2023 on 20 articles alleging bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction of justice.

The charges stemmed from accusations that he used his office to benefit a political donor and that he also retaliated against whistleblowers.

The Texas Senate later acquitted Paxton on all counts.

Trump declined to offer an endorsement of Paxton when he entered the race, but did not rule out doing so in the future.

“In a way, I wish they weren’t running against each other,” Trump told reporters on April 25. “I’ll make a decision somewhere along the line.”