Turn Out The Lights? Biden Has 99% Chance of Winning Nomination, According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

Scott Olson/Getty Images

A new forecast from polarizing prognosticator Nate Silver suggests that former Vice President Joe Biden has just about locked up the party’s presidential nomination.

As Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders prepare to face off in Michigan, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight statistical model projects that Biden now has a 99% chance of winning enough delegates to secure the nomination. Estimates put Sanders at a 1 percent chance for victory, while by June, Biden is expected to secure 2,418 delegates with Sanders only at a projected 1,353.

“Biden is forecasted to win an average of 78 pledged delegates out of a possible 125,” FiveThirtyEight said. “In 80% of simulations, he wins between 70 and 86 delegates. He has a 99 in 100 (>99%) chance of winning the most delegates, much better than the second most likely winner, Sanders, who has a 1 in 100 (1.0%) chance.”

FiveThirtyEight continues to offer troubling news for Sanders, with their previous estimate saying Biden was looking at an 88% chance of winning a majority of delegates, with Sanders only at 2%. This comes after Biden got the upper hand on Sanders after the Super Tuesday votes came in, with the Michigan primary looking like it could be a decisive moment in the Democratic primary fight.