Nate Silver: ‘Without Pennsylvania, Biden Becomes an Underdog’ In the 2020 Election


FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver warned that Joe Biden’s chances of winning the 2020 election will fall dramatically if the former vice president can’t win Pennsylvania.

Silver gave an interview to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Sunday, which mostly focused on FiveThirtyEight’s assessment that President Donald Trump could win reelection, but Biden is going into November 3rd with the upper hand. As Silver outlined the various possible outcomes of the vote, Stephanopoulos asked him “what would be the key factors” if Trump ends up winning with a 10 percent probability of success.

“I think it would come down to Pennsylvania,” Silver answered. He went on:

Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a seven or eight point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s five points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on. Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.

Watch above, via ABC.

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