Nate Silver Gives Clinton a Near 80% Probability of Defeating Trump
Statistician Nate Silver appeared today on Good Morning America, where he said that even if Donald Trump has beaten the odds against prognosticators like him in the past, they are still likely to beat him in the end.
The FiveThirtyEight political analyst crunched the numbers with George Stephanopoulos, and he says that the current probabilities show Hillary Clinton with a 79 percent chance of defeating Trump in the race for the White House.
“We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver said. “There’s a lot of football left to be played. She’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
On @GMA, @NateSilver538 predicts Hillary Clinton has a 79% of winning the general election: https://t.co/f7uBMepgA1 https://t.co/0KSrp4Kkfp
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) June 29, 2016
From there, Silver pointed to Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and other swing states as he told Stephanopolous how certain parts of the country are much more up for grabs than usual this election. Both of them acknowledged that Trump has upset the usual political rules and expectations (Silver gave him a 2% chance of getting the nomination), but Silver pointed out that Trump’s general election numbers have still remained consistent where his primary voting numbers have not.
Some recent polls show Clinton with a substantial lead on Trump, while others suggest they are currently locked in a dead heat.
[Image via screengrab]
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