Trump’s Former FDA Chief Warns That the ‘Fate of the Economy’ Depends on Controlling the Virus

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Dr. Scott Gottlieb, President Donald Trump’s former FDA chief, warned that controlling the coronavirus is the only way to avoid an economic recession in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal — pointing out that Americans are staying home because they’re scared of getting sick.

The article, penned by both Gottlieb and Michael R. Strain, points out that although the country is “open for business” in several states, “as long as Covid-19 is an epidemic, many will be cautious, and the economy will be weak.”

“There has been debate over whether lockdown orders or concerns about catching the virus is the primary driver of the economic downturn,” they wrote. “Both contributed, but consumer worries may now be the more prominent factor in many parts of the economy. Supporting recovery, and minimizing the risk of a double-dip recession, requires controlling the epidemic”

The two speculated that although a team of economists at Indiana University projected that 60 percent of the employment decline between January and April was caused by the lockdowns and other policies, the other 40 percent was driven by fear of contracting the virus.

“The lockdowns are largely over, and consumers are still nervous and skipping activities they view as optional or too risky,” the article warned before referencing a Goldman Sachs analysis that discovered the personal care industry is only at half of its previous level of activity.

Gottlieb and Strain called for more testing and mask-wearing in order to control outbreaks and ultimately halt the spread of the virus — warning that if the U.S. fails to do this, the country will be met with more death and economic tragedy.

“Even if risk tolerance is increasing, the economy is likely to have a recession-level output gap driven by reasonable fears of Covid,” they wrote. “States are unlikely to reimpose lockdowns no matter how widely the virus spreads, and the Trump administration won’t turn to a ‘stay at home’ strategy ahead of the election. The fate of the economy this fall and winter depends on controlling spread.”