CNN’s David Chalian Sounds the Alarm For Kamala Harris In North Carolina With Black Voters

CNN Political Director David Chalian broke down the network’s final swing state polls in a discussion with anchor Dana Bash on Thursday. Chalian sounded the alarm for Harris in North Carolina while looking at her margin over Trump with Black voters compared to Biden’s margin in the state in 2020.

“It’s a one-point race in each of them in Georgia among likely voters. Our brand new poll shows Trump at 48%, support Harris at 47% support. It’s the flip in North Carolina. Harris is at 48% support among likely voters there. Trump at 47% support — one point races,” Chalian began, as Bash noted, “No clear leader.”

“No clear leader. This is basically a tie. Yes, this is a toss-up election. Let’s go inside Georgia first. In terms of some of the coalition groups here, independent voters. And again, I just would say we’re comparing likely voters in a poll to what actually happened with voters in the 2020 exit polls. These are two different universes, but instructive among independent voters in our poll,” Chalian continued, adding:

Trump has a seven-point advantage in Georgia. In Georgia in 2020, Biden won independent voters by nine points. So that’s a potential warning sign there for Harris. Black voters in Georgia, In our poll, 71% percentage point advantage over Trump for Harris. That’s about where Biden was.

He was at 77 points in the exit polls in terms of his advantage over Trump. White non-college voters down in Georgia. Trump has a 66 percentage point advantage in our poll. That is his base. We should expect it’s actually even bigger than his advantage was in Georgia in the exit polls, but in that range.

In North Carolina. Let’s look at these same groups here among independent voters. Harris has a four-point advantage over Trump in our poll. That’s where Biden was with independent voters in the exit polls in 2020. Right. Remember, he lost North Carolina in 2020 by a narrow margin. Black voters, 59 percentage point advantage.

This is a huge potential warning sign. In the exit polls, Biden won the Black vote in North Carolina by 85 percentage points. Harris This is something she’s going to want to watch for in the closing days. And then you see the white non-college here. This is perhaps a little bit of diminishment of support among Trump’s base than he had four years ago. Also in North Carolina, that governor’s race, you all remember the story about Mark Robinson, of course. His support plummeted. He’s at 37%. Josh Stein is likely to be the next governor, a Democrat in North Carolina. And some Democrats say having this race off the map was a detriment to them, keeping every Democrat in North Carolina enthused.

“Yeah, which is a little bit counterintuitive, you would think, but you know who’s left to win over?” Bash asked.

“Well, take a look at this. So 95% in both states, minds made up. Obviously, there’s this small universe. But we just heard our Ebony Davis ask Vice President Harris when you were playing the sound before, what is your argument to these final movable voters? And her answer was immediately about the economy and bringing prices down,” Chalian replied, adding:

And then, Dana, we take a look at those voters who tell us they’ve already voted. So among those in these states who tell us they already voted in Georgia, that’s 59% of the folks in our poll. Harris wins them 51% to 44%. In North Carolina, 52% of our poll respondents tell us they already voted. So, again, a majority and Harris is winning them here, 51% to 45%. I will just note these are closer among those that tell us that they’ve already voted for Harris than we see in those blue wall states where she had more of an advantage with those who tell us they already voted.

Watch above via CNN.