‘Mind Blown’: CNN’s Enten Stunned By Democrats Outpacing Republicans In Texas Vote

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten presented some stunning numbers on Wednesday that suggest a potential major shift in the red state of Texas.

Enten and John Berman went over numbers out of Texas showing far more Democrats than Republicans are casting primary ballots, which suggests an unwelcome trend for the midterms for Republicans.

“Mind blown,” Enten told Berman.

At this point, the share of midterm primary ballots from Democrats is 53%. Republicans account for the other 47%. This shows a major difference just from 2022, when 38% of ballots at this point were from Democrats, and 62% were from Republicans.

“What a shift from where we were four years ago. At this point, more people in Texas are picking up the Democratic ballot,” Enten said.

What’s all the more surprising about the numbers is that Texas is mostly a stronghold for Republicans. If the numbers stay on course the way they are now, a new record will be broken that’ll likely have Republicans sweating.

Enten reported that the last time Democrats led Republicans in turnout for primaries was in 2002 — and since then it hasn’t been close.

“This could break an over 20-year stretch, my goodness gracious, whereby more people are actually voting on the Democratic side,” Enten said. “And I will note, it really hasn’t even been close since 2002. Overwhelmingly, more people have been voting on the Republican side in Texas, and this year so far, more people are voting on the Democratic side.”

“This is different, very different with a capital ‘V’ in this case,” Berman added.

Texas has elections for governor, a Senate seat, and more this year. Primary voting, Enten argued, matters because it is a major indicator of later results. In midterms in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, a larger primary turnout coincided with which side won control of the House.

Enten highlighted the further strangeness of the numbers out of Texas by pointing to the prediction market, which is leaning towards Democrats having a show of force in the red state.

“Right now, the people putting their money where their mouth is actually slightly predict that there will be more votes cast on the Democratic side than on the Republican side, 60% to 40%,” Enten said, referring to Kalshi’s predictions. “Still a close race, but given that Republicans have been so out-voting Democrats in Texas, the idea that more people could actually vote on the Democrat side in Texas? Again, as I said at the top, whoa!”

Watch above via CNN.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!