‘Up Like a Rocket!’ CNN Data Guru Predicts Dems Will Easily Take Back the House Amid Big Gains

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten predicted on Wednesday that Democrats will likely have an “easy” path to take control of the House and possibly the Senate following some major gains in special elections.

Enten joined John Berman on Wednesday morning to discuss a handful of special elections, all of which showed major gains for Democrats when compared to the party’s performance when former Vice President Kamala Harris was running for the White House.

The biggest gain for Democrats was a race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Liberal Judge Chris Taylor won the race and Enten noted it marked a 21-point gain for Democrats compared to 2024.

Enten reported:

And this is part of a pattern, right? In Virginia, governor, we saw the Democrat there exceeding Kamala Harris by 10, New Jersey governor by eight. And this is even better, even better than what Democrats had back in the 2017-2018 cycles, where they were exceeding Hillary Clinton’s baseline, but by 12, four, and less than a point. So this time around, oh my goodness gracious. Holy cow. Holy smokes. Holy Toledo. And of course, remember Democrats took the house in 2018. And I will note that the Wisconsin Supreme Court performance last night by Chris Taylor was the best for a liberal candidate in an open seat in at least at least 30 years.

Enten also dove into the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s open Georgia seat in the House. Republican Clay Fuller beat Democrat Shawn Harris, but Enten again noted that Democrats still outperformed.

“You think a 21-point overperformance versus the Kamala Harris baseline is impressive. That ain’t got nothing on what happened in Georgia. Look at this,” he said, showing a 25-point gain for Democrats.

The significance of the gains, Enten added, is that the political party to overperform in special elections has gone on to win control of the House five out of five times since 2005. In a post to X, Enten wrote the numbers “all suggest an easy Dem win in the House.”

Prediction markets are also favoring Democrats at this point, with Kalshi upping Democrats’ chances of taking both the House and the Senate from 29 percent in January to 51% this week.

“The Kalshi prediction markets really are taking these results and saying, oh my goodness gracious,” Enten said, adding Democrats’ numbers are “up like a rocket.”

Watch above via CNN.

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