‘A Pure Toss Up’: Nate Silver Says Race Now a Coin Flip Amid Flood of New Polls — Including Ann Selzer’s Shocker in Iowa

(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

Nate Silver’s latest election forecast couldn’t get much closer.

In the latest update on his Silver Bulletin substack page Sunday, the widely-followed election guru gave former President Donald Trump a 51.5 percent chance to prevail in the electoral college, and Vice President Kamala Harris a 48.1 percent chance.

“It’s a pure toss up,” Silver posted on X, formerly Twitter.

Silver arrived at his latest forecast by factoring in swing state polls from both the Morning Consult and The New York Times. Harris fared better in the Times polls — which showed her ahead in four of the seven battlegrounds, tied in two, and trailing only in Arizona. Trump performed stronger in the Morning Consult polls — which had him ahead in three swing states, and tied in two others.

As for the stunning Iowa survey from renowned pollster Ann Selzer which showed Harris leading Iowa by 3 points, Silver said he believes the survey “probably won’t matter” one way or the other in determining the electoral college winner. But Silver did note that Harris supporters are justified in their reaction to the shocking survey.

“I think Harris voters are reasonable in rejoicing over the Selzer survey,” Silver wrote. “At the very least, it clinches the case that there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters in the final batch of polls that support a Harris victory — along with roughly as many that imply a Trump win. If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November. And we will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up, not leaning or tilting toward Trump.”

Silver gave Joe Biden an 89 percent chance of victory in his final 2020 forecast and Trump a roughly 30 percent chance in his final 2016 prognostication — which was much higher than many other election forecasters.