Biden Approval Falls Below 50 Percent for First Time in Polling Averages Amid Afghanistan Chaos

Tommy ChristopherAug 18th, 2021, 9:24 am

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 16: U.S. President Joe Biden pauses while giving remarks on the worsening crisis in Afghanistan from the East Room of the White House August 16, 2021 in Washington, DC. Biden cut his vacation in Camp David short to address the nation as the Taliban have seized control in Afghanistan two weeks before the U.S. is set to complete its troop withdrawal after a costly two-decade war.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has fallen below 50 percent in two key polling averages for the first time in his presidency, as chaos in Afghanistan dominates news coverage.

After many months of steady approval in the mid-50s, the president’s approval rating has fallen to 49.8 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls, and 49.4 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. In both cases, Biden remains above water, with average disapprovals of 44 percent and 46.8 percent, respectively.

Biden’s predecessor, former President Donald Trump, never got above 49 percent in the Gallup tracking poll, the 538 average (45.5%), or the RCP average (44.5%). In a speech Monday, Biden placed some of the blame for the situation in Afghanistan on Trump and his administration.

A source close to the White House told Mediaite that “The American people support the president and his agenda, including his plans to create millions of middle class jobs, take on prescription drug prices, and his decision not to surge thousands more American service members into harm’s way in Afghanistan to stop a coming offensive.”

Although the dip below fifty percent coincides with the events unfolding in Afghanistan, the most significant erosion dates back a few months. In July’s Gallup presidential approval poll, Biden dropped 6 points to 50 percent after months of consistent high approval, fueled by a 5-point dip among Democrats and an 8-point drop among independents. The president actually ticked up a point with Republicans in that poll.

According to 538’s Geoffrey Skelley, it’s “possible that the situation in Afghanistan could take a further toll on Biden’s approval ratings,” but “it’s just too soon to say at this point.”

The success or failure of the rest of the evacuation of Americans and allies from Afghanistan will also undoubtedly play a role in determining the direction of Biden’s approval ratings, as will the direction of the coronavirus pandemic as schools begin to reopen.